| 1971-2012 年青藏高原及周边地区气温变化特征及其海拔敏感性分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 丁明军,李兰晖,张镱锂,刘林山,王兆锋.1971-2012 年青藏高原及周边地区气温变化特征及其海拔敏感性分析[J].资源科学,2014,36(7):1509-1518. |
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| 作者姓名： | 丁明军 李兰晖 张镱锂 刘林山 王兆锋 |
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| 作者单位： | 江西师范大学鄱阳湖湿地与流域研究教育部重点实验室, 南昌330022;中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所, 北京100101;江西师范大学鄱阳湖湿地与流域研究教育部重点实验室, 南昌330022;中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所, 北京100101;中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所, 北京100101;中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所, 北京100101 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家重点基础研究发展计划（编号：2010CB951704）；中国科学院战略性先导科技专项（编号：XDB03030500）；国家自然科学基金（编号：41201095；41171080） |
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| 摘 要： | 海拔敏感性是当前全球气候变化研究的热点之一，青藏高原作为“世界屋脊”，探讨该区域气候变暖与海拔的关系对全球气候变化研究具有重要的参考意义。本文基于1971-2012年青藏高原及周边地区123个气象站的月平均气温数据，采用Mann-Kendall（M-K）趋势分析和突变检验、滑动t检验等方法分析了该地区气温变化的时空分布及其与海拔的关系。结果表明：①1971-2012年研究区年、四季、最热月和最冷月均温均呈现显著上升趋势，但增温幅度空间差异明显，具体表现为中、东部和东北部高，东南部低的态势；②除春季外，研究区增温幅度总体呈现随海拔上升而增加的趋势，且该趋势在青藏高原主体范围内尤为明显，但在不同海拔梯度内存在显著差异，其中海拔2 000~3 000m内增温对海拔的敏感性最强，海拔3 000~4 000m次之，而在海拔4 000m以上区域，增温幅度随海拔增加呈现下降趋势；③年均温的突变年份与海拔存在明显的线性关系，具体表现为：海拔每升高1 000m，突变年份推迟1.1~1.2年（p=0.001）；④青藏高原年均温变化趋势及其海拔敏感性对研究时段起、止年份的选取较为敏感。
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| 关 键 词： | 青藏高原 气温变化 海拔敏感性 M-K分析 |
Temperature Change and Its Elevation Dependency on the Tibetan Plateau and Its Vicinity from 1971 to 2012 |
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| DING Mingjun,LI Lanhui,ZHANG Yili,LIU Linshan and WANG Zhaofeng.Temperature Change and Its Elevation Dependency on the Tibetan Plateau and Its Vicinity from 1971 to 2012[J].Resources Science,2014,36(7):1509-1518. |
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| Authors: | DING Mingjun LI Lanhui ZHANG Yili LIU Linshan and WANG Zhaofeng |
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| Institution: | Key Lab of Poyang Lake Wetland and Watershed Research, Ministry of Education, Jiangxi Normal University, Nanchang 330022, China;Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resource Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China;Key Lab of Poyang Lake Wetland and Watershed Research, Ministry of Education, Jiangxi Normal University, Nanchang 330022, China;Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resource Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China;Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resource Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China;Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resource Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China |
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| Abstract: | Elevation dependency is a focus of global climate change research. The Tibetan Plateau is often called the roof of the world and analyzing the relationship between climate warming and altitudinal variation for this Plateau is of great significance to global climate change research. Based on monthly mean temperature from 123 national meteorological stations across the Tibetan Plateau and surrounding areas from 1971 to 2012,spatio-temporal characteristics of temperature change and elevation dependency were examined using Mann-Kendall(M-K)tests and moving t-tests. We found that annual,seasonal,coldest month and hottest month mean temperatures,for most stations,displayed an increasing tendency. However,the increasing ranges show a very different spatial pattern with strong warming distributed in central,eastern and northeastern regions of the plateau and weak warming in the southeast. Temperature trend coefficients,except for spring,follow an increasing tendency with increasing elevation,especially on the Tibetan Plateau; however,these displayed different patterns at different elevation gradients. In the zone between 2 000~3 000m,the trend coefficients were more sensitive to altitude than for 3 000~4 000m;the trend coefficients above 4000 m displayed a slight decrease with elevation rise. We found a linear relationship between the timing of annual mean temperature abrupt changes and elevation whereby the time of abrupt change was delayed 1.1~1.2 a per 1km increase in elevation. Lastly,trend coefficients for temperature and elevation dependency across the Tibetan Plateau are sensitive to beginning and end dates. |
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| Keywords: | Tibetan Plateau temperature change elevation dependency M-K analysis |
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