| 极端天气气候事件对旅游业的影响——以2008年雪灾为例 |
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| 引用本文： | 马丽君,孙根年,马耀峰,王洁洁,舒静静.极端天气气候事件对旅游业的影响——以2008年雪灾为例[J].资源科学,2010,32(1). |
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| 作者姓名： | 马丽君 孙根年 马耀峰 王洁洁 舒静静 |
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| 作者单位： | 陕西师范大学旅游与环境学院,西安,710062 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金，国家社会科学基金 |
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| 摘 要： | 本文在广泛收集数据资料的基础上,系统分析了不同类型极端天气气候对旅游业的影响,按影响机制将其划分为3个类型,并借助本底趋势线理论完成了2008年雪灾对旅游业影响的分析。结果显示:①高温热浪等主要通过降低气候舒适度,大雾等主要通过阻断交通,降低景区的可进入性和可观赏性,暴雨洪水等主要通过危及人们生命安全,来影响旅游业的发展;②2008年雪灾对各省区入境旅游的影响并不是很大,其中,贵州、江西等受灾严重,旅游损失率最大,损失率在1.48%～4.98%;广东、江苏客流损失量较大,分别为11.7×104人和5.6×104人;③雪灾对各城市入境旅游的影响较小,其中,桂林、黄山受灾严重,旅游损失率较大,损失率分别为2.25%和1.79%;深圳、桂林客流损失量较大,分别为4.0×104人和3.4×104人;④2008年雪灾对旅游业的影响,其游客损失量与客流量基数(本底值)成正比;游客损失率与2008年本底值(基数)成反比;损失量和损失率两者均与受灾程度存在一定的成正比关系。
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| 关 键 词： | 气候 极端天气气候 雪灾 旅游 本底趋势线 |
A Study on the Influence of Extreme Weather and Climate on Tourism:A Case on Snowstorm in 2008 |
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| MA Lijun,SUN Gennian,MAYaofeng,WANG Jiejie,SHU Jingjing.A Study on the Influence of Extreme Weather and Climate on Tourism:A Case on Snowstorm in 2008[J].Resources Science,2010,32(1). |
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| Authors: | MA Lijun SUN Gennian MAYaofeng WANG Jiejie SHU Jingjing |
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| Abstract: | Tourism is often affected by extreme weather and climate.Influence of different types of extreme weather and climate on tourism was systematically analyzed based on an extensive collection of data.In general.extreme weather and climate can be grouped into three types in terms of their impact mechanisms.The influence of the snowstorm in 2008 on tourism was analyzed in detail on the basis of the theory of the natural trend curve.Results indicated that first.extreme high-temperature and low-temperature would affect tourism by decreasing climate comfort degrees of tourists.In this case,tourists tend not to be touring.Fog,dust storm,and snowstorm affect tourism by blocking traffic and reducing accessibility and suitability of spots.Tourists can often not go out for touring in the case.Flood,tropical storm,and ice storm affect tourism by decreasing the safety of people.Tourists are afraid to go out for touring.Second,the impact of the snowstorm in 2008 on tourism was not significant.Guizhou,Jiangxi,Hunan and Guangxi provinces suffered the largest loss rates ranging from 1.48%to 4.98%.Jiangsu,Yunnan,and Anhui provinces exposedrelatively smaller loss rates ranging from 0.62%to 0.97%.Zhejiang,Guangdong,Hubei,and Shanghai provinces and city suffered the smallest loss rates ranging from 0.1 8%to 0.54%.Guangdong and Jiangsu provinces suffered relatively larger flow losses,with an estimated number of tourists of 117,000 and 56,000,respectively.Guangxi,Zhejiang,Hunan,Jiangxi,Guizhou,and Yunnan provinces suffered a smaller flow loss,with showing the decreased number of tourists ranging from 21,000 to 34,000.Shanghai,Anhui,and Hubei provinces suffered the smallest flow losses.with indicating the decreased number of tourists less than 10,000.Third,the impact of the snowstorm in 2008 on cities'tourism was considered minor.Guilin and Huangshan cities suffered the largest loss rates ranging from 1.79%to 2.25%.Suzhou,Nanjing,Wuhan,Shenzhen,Zhuhai and Xi'an cities suffered smalllOSS rates ranging from 0.27%to 0.89%.Hangzhou and Guangzhou cities suffered the smallest loss rates ranging from 0.07%to 0.08%.Shenzhen and Guilin cities suffered larger flow losses,showing the decreased number of tourists Of 40,000 and 34,000,respectively.Suzhou,Huangshan,Zhuhai and Nanjing cities suffered smaller flow losses,with indicating the decreased number of tourists ranging from 8,000 to 16,000.Guangzhou,Xi'an,Wuhan and Hangzhou suffered the smallest flow losses,showing the decreased number of tourists less than 5,000.Forth,the losses of tourists were positively proportional to the base number of tourists(the number of the natural trend curve)to some degree.Loss rates of tourists are proportional to the number of the natural trend curve (the base number of tourists).Both loss rate and the loss volume showed a direct proportion to the intensity of snowstorm.This research would provide meaningful reference for studying the relationship between climate and tourism and improving the ability of decision-makers to deal with extreme weather and climate. |
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| Keywords: | Climate Extreme weather and climate Snowstorm Tourism Natural trend curve |
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