| 中国县域碳排放脱钩关系及其时空特征演变 |
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| 引用本文： | 张赫,黄雅哲,王睿,张建勋,彭竞仪.中国县域碳排放脱钩关系及其时空特征演变[J].资源科学,2022,44(4):744-755. |
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| 作者姓名： | 张赫 黄雅哲 王睿 张建勋 彭竞仪 |
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| 作者单位： | 天津大学建筑学院,天津 300072 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金项目(52078328);国家重点研发计划项目(2018YFC0704701) |
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| 摘 要： | 碳排放与经济发展的脱钩关系影响着碳减排目标的实现与经济增长模式的选择。本文基于Tapio脱钩模型与空间自相关,探究2002—2017年中国1741个县级行政单元碳排放与经济增长脱钩关系的时空演变特征与空间聚集格局,并运用马尔科夫模型在时空双重维度分析县域碳排放脱钩的空间趋同效应。研究发现：①县域碳排放脱钩关系以强脱钩、弱脱钩、扩张负脱钩为主,强脱钩聚集于东部沿海、南部沿海等地区,负脱钩数量逐渐增加且向东北及西北地区集中;②县域脱钩具有空间正相关性,空间分异特征在经历局部聚集、“东正西负”分异后,呈现“南正北负”的聚集与分异并存格局;③县域脱钩趋于稳定和向好发展,存在空间“俱乐部趋同”现象,大部地区呈现理想脱钩聚集,东北、西北呈现县域邻域均向下转移的团状聚集。因此,中国应聚焦县域碳排放与经济发展脱钩关系的状态不稳定与区域不均衡,落实差异化的控碳策略,扭转空间分异的脱钩格局。
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| 关 键 词： | 县域 碳排放 脱钩关系 时空特征 空间自相关 马尔科夫链 中国 |
| 收稿时间： | 2021-10-10 |
| 修稿时间： | 2022-04-15 |
Decoupling and spatiotemporal change of carbon emissions at the county level in China |
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| ZHANG He,HUANG Yazhe,WANG Rui,ZHANG Jianxun,PENG Jingyi.Decoupling and spatiotemporal change of carbon emissions at the county level in China[J].Resources Science,2022,44(4):744-755. |
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| Authors: | ZHANG He HUANG Yazhe WANG Rui ZHANG Jianxun PENG Jingyi |
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| Institution: | School of Architecture, Tianjin University, Tianjin 300072, China |
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| Abstract: | The decoupling relationship between carbon emissions and economic development affects the realization of carbon emission reduction target and the choice of economic growth model. Based on the Tapio decoupling model and spatial autocorrelation analysis, this study explored the spatiotemporal change characteristics and spatial aggregation pattern of the decoupling relationship between carbon emissions and economic growth in 1741 county-level administrative units in China’s mainland from 2002 to 2017. The Markov model was used to analyze the spatial convergence effect of carbon emission decoupling at the county level in both spatial and temporal dimensions. The study found that: (1) The relationship of carbon emission decoupling at the county level is mainly strong decoupling, weak decoupling, and expanded negative decoupling. The trend of decoupling is greater in the south than in the north, and the number of negative decoupling cases increases gradually and is concentrated in the west and northeast. (2) The decoupling of carbon emissions at the county level showsa positive spatial correlation. After experiencing local aggregation and a spatial differentiation of “positive in the east and negative in the west”, there exists an aggregation and differentiation coexistence pattern of “positive in the south and negative in the north”. (3) Carbon emission decoupling at the county level tended to be stable and developed well, and there was a spatial “club convergence” phenomenon. Most of the regions present ideal decoupling agglomeration characteristics, but the northern region presents a cluster agglomeration pattern of downward transfer of the county and neighboring areas. Therefore, China should focus on the state instability and regional imbalance of the decoupling relationship between county carbon emissions and economic development, implement differentiated carbon emission control strategies, and achieve spatially balanced decoupling. |
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| Keywords: | at county level carbon emissions decoupling relationship spatiotemporal characteristics spatial autocorrelation Markov chains China |
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