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| 全球稀土进口竞争格局分析及潜在贸易联系预测 | |
| 引用本文： | 祝孔超,赵媛,姚亚兵,崔盼盼,鄢继尧.全球稀土进口竞争格局分析及潜在贸易联系预测[J].资源科学,2022,44(1):70-84. |
| 作者姓名： | 祝孔超 赵媛 姚亚兵 崔盼盼 鄢继尧 |
| 作者单位： | 1. 南京师范大学地理科学学院,南京 210023 2. 南京师范大学金陵女子学院,南京 210097 3. 江苏省地理信息资源开发与利用协同创新中心,南京 210023 4. 兰州理工大学计算机与通信学院,兰州 730000 |
| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金项目(41971248) |
| 摘 要： | 稀土是一个国家经济社会发展极其重要的战略资源,从长时间尺度分析其进口竞争格局并预测未来潜在的贸易联系可为稀土进出口国制定和调整稀土贸易政策提供参考.以稀土(HS:280530)为研究对象,运用复杂网络方法,构建1990-2018年全球稀土进口竞争网络,分析全球稀土进口竞争格局、演变特征,大洲、国家间竞争特点以及对中国稀... |
| 关 键 词： | 稀土 复杂网络 竞争格局 链路预测 潜在贸易联系 联系动机 中国 |
| 收稿时间： | 2020-10-28 |
| 修稿时间： | 2021-06-05 |
Global rare earth import competition pattern and prediction for potential trade links |
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| ZHU Kongchao,ZHAO Yuan,YAO Yabing,CUI Panpan,YAN Jiyao.Global rare earth import competition pattern and prediction for potential trade links[J].Resources Science,2022,44(1):70-84. | |
| Authors: | ZHU Kongchao ZHAO Yuan YAO Yabing CUI Panpan YAN Jiyao |
| Institution: | 1. School of Geography, Nanjing Normal University, Nanjing 210023, China 2. Ginling College, Nanjing Normal University, Nanjing 210097, China 3. Jiangsu Center for Collaborative Innovation in Geographical Information Resource Development and Application, Nanjing 210023, China 4. School of Computer and Communication, Lanzhou University of Technology, Lanzhou 730000, China |
| Abstract: | Rare earth is an extremely important strategic resource for the economic and social development of a country, and analyzing its import competition pattern from a long temporal scale and predicting its potential trade links can provide some references for rare earth importers and exporters in formulating and adjusting rare earth trade policies. Taking rare earth (HS: 280530) as the research object, this study constructed the global rare earth import competition network from 1990 to 2018 by applying the complex network method, then the global rare earth import competition pattern and characteristics of change, inter-continental and inter-country competition conditions, and the competition situation for China were analyzed. On this basis, the link prediction algorithms based on local information similarity were used to investigate the link motivation of rare earth trade and predict the potential trade links. The results show that: (1) The scale of global rare earth import competition network has expanded and the degree of competition globalization has increased. The competition network presents the characteristic of “compactness”; (2) The competition relationships between continents and high competition intensity mainly existed within Europe, within Asia, and between Europe and Asia. The distribution of high competition intensity between countries is highly concentrated in a few competition relationships. The competition between large rare earth importers constitutes the most important part of the global rare earth import competition pattern and dominates the formation and change of this pattern. The competition between Japan and other countries is of the highest intensity; (3) Affected by China’s rare earth production and export policies and other factors, the competition intensity for rare earth in the whole world and in China has changed from increasingly fierce to overall moderate. High global competition intensity is concentrated on China and the rare earth importers have the most intense competition for China’s rare earth resources. (4) Preferential attachment is the link motivation for rare earth trade countries to establish rare earth trade links. In the future, the United States and Belgium, Japan and Germany, and the Netherlands and Britain are likely to establish rare earth trade links. Countries such as Sweden may establish rare earth trade links with China. |
| Keywords: | rare earth complex network competition pattern link prediction potential trade link link motivation China |
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