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| 产业链视角下贸易依赖网络结构变动对钴价格的影响 | |
| 引用本文： | 赵怡然,高湘昀,孙晓奇,司景舰,孙笑甜,伍涛.产业链视角下贸易依赖网络结构变动对钴价格的影响[J].资源科学,2022,44(7):1344-1357. |
| 作者姓名： | 赵怡然 高湘昀 孙晓奇 司景舰 孙笑甜 伍涛 |
| 作者单位： | 1.中国地质大学（北京）经济管理学院,北京 100083 2.自然资源部资源环境承载力评价重点实验室,北京 100083 3.深圳大学中国海外利益研究院,深圳 518060 |
| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金重大项目(71991481);国家自然科学基金项目(42001242);国家自然科学基金项目(41901246) |
| 摘 要： | 战略性矿产资源产业链产品的贸易网络结构变动可能会对各环节产品价格波动造成影响。本文以钴为例,选取2007—2020年上游钴矿、中游钴酸锂、下游锂电池的贸易数据,构建了钴产业链的贸易依赖网络,并分析了相应网络的结构特征;结合LASSO-PVAR模型及脉冲响应函数,分析了贸易依赖网络结构变动对产业链上中下游产品价格波动的动态影响。结果表明：①钴产业链贸易依赖网络结构呈现出上游钴矿贸易受资源禀赋国主导,中游钴酸锂贸易以少数发达国家为中心形成网络集团,下游锂电池贸易以荷兰、德国、美国、中国等国家为主要伙伴国的特征。②上游钴矿价格主要受到上游和下游贸易依赖强度的影响,中游钴酸锂价格主要受到中游和下游中介控制优势的影响,下游锂电池受到上游和中游贸易伙伴数量以及下游贸易集团化程度影响。③产业链下游锂电池价格受到贸易网络结构变化影响较大,最大波动幅度超过20%;上游钴矿价格受到贸易网络结构变化影响次之,均在10%之内;中游钴酸锂价格受到贸易网络结构变化影响最小,均不超过5%。贸易依赖网络结构变动对价格的冲击影响在第3年之后逐渐消退。本文为探究资源价格影响因素提供了新的研究视角,为战略性矿产资源价格监测工作提供了相关建议。 |
| 关 键 词： | 贸易依赖 网络结构 价格 钴资源 产业链 脉冲响应函数 |
| 收稿时间： | 2021-09-18 |
| 修稿时间： | 2022-02-22 |
The impact of structural changes of trade dependence network on cobalt price from the perspective of industrial chain |
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| ZHAO Yiran,GAO Xiangyun,SUN Xiaoqi,SI Jingjian,SUN Xiaotian,WU Tao.The impact of structural changes of trade dependence network on cobalt price from the perspective of industrial chain[J].Resources Science,2022,44(7):1344-1357. | |
| Authors: | ZHAO Yiran GAO Xiangyun SUN Xiaoqi SI Jingjian SUN Xiaotian WU Tao |
| Institution: | 1. School of Economics and Management, China University of Geosciences (Beijing), Beijing 100083, China 2. Key Laboratory of Carrying Capacity Assessment for Resource and Environment, Ministry of Natural Resources, Beijing 100083, China 3. The Institute for China’s Overseas Interests, Shenzhen University, Shenzhen 518060, China |
| Abstract: | Changes in the structure of the trade network for products in the strategic mineral resources chain may have an impact on the price fluctuations of products in each link. Taking cobalt as an example, this paper selects the trade data of cobalt ore in the upstream, lithium cobaltate in the midstream and lithium battery in the downstream from 2007 to 2020, constructs a trade dependence network of the cobalt industry chain and analyzes the structural characteristics of the corresponding network. Combining the LASSO-PVAR model and impulse response function, the dynamic effects of changes in trade dependence network structure on the price fluctuations of upstream, midstream and downstream products in the industry chain are analyzed. The results indicate that: (1) The trade dependence network structure of the cobalt industry chain shows that the upstream cobalt ore trade is dominated by resource endowment countries, the midstream lithium cobaltate trade forms a network group among a few developed countries, and the downstream lithium battery trade is characterized by countries such as the Netherlands, Germany, the United States and China as major partner countries. (2) Upstream cobalt ore prices are mainly influenced by the intensity of upstream and downstream trade dependence, midstream lithium cobaltate prices are mainly influenced by the dominance of midstream and downstream intermediary control, and downstream lithium batteries are influenced by the number of upstream and midstream trade partners and the degree of downstream trade conglomeration. (3) The downstream lithium battery price of the industry chain is greatly affected by the change of trade network structure, with the maximum fluctuation of more than 20%; the upstream cobalt ore price is the second most affected, all within 10%; the midstream lithium cobaltate price is the least affected, all not exceeding 5%. The impact of trade dependence network structure changes on prices gradually fades after the third year. This study provides a new research perspective for exploring the influencing factors of resource prices, and provides relevant suggestions for monitoring the price of strategic mineral resources. |
| Keywords: | trade dependence network structure price cobalt resources industrial chain impulse response function |
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