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| 经济政策不确定性对中国碳排放的对称与非对称影响 | |
| 引用本文： | 刘妍,赵晶,李晨.经济政策不确定性对中国碳排放的对称与非对称影响[J].资源科学,2022,44(6):1091-1104. |
| 作者姓名： | 刘妍 赵晶 李晨 |
| 作者单位： | 1.中国海洋大学经济学院,青岛 266100 2.中国海洋大学海洋发展研究院,青岛 266100 |
| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金青年项目(72003180) |
| 摘 要： | 在全球经济快速转型背景下,经济政策不确定性（EPU）的影响已渗入到生产生活的各个领域,正确认识经济政策不确定性带来的环境风险对“双碳目标”实现至关重要。本文基于非对称传导效应视角,采用2003—2017年中国30个省份面板数据,实证检验EPU在长短期对碳排放的对称与非对称影响,并基于经济发展水平展开异质性分析,构建中介效应模型分析EPU上升、下降对碳排放影响的作用机制。研究表明：①EPU对碳排放短期存在非对称影响,长期存在对称影响。在短期,EPU上升显著影响碳排放,而EPU下降对碳排放影响不明显。在长期,两者呈负相关的线性关系,EPU下降促进碳排放。②EPU对碳排放的影响因经济发展水平不同而具有明显区域异质性。在短期,EPU变化对东部地区作用不显著,对中、西部地区作用显著,并表现出非对称影响;在长期,东部地区仅有EPU下降会增加碳排放,中、西部地区EPU与碳排放呈现负相关的线性关系。③碳排放在不同区域受到EPU冲击后的调整速度不同,东部地区的自我调节能力高于中、西部地区,能更迅速地调整并稳定碳排放水平。④EPU对碳排放的影响主要通过经济效应表现,EPU上升通过抑制经济增长活力导致碳排放降低,EPU下降通过加快经济增长速度导致碳排放增加。未来,政府应审慎调整经济政策,健全和完善市场信息披露体系并充分发挥地区比较优势助推新兴产业发展。 |
| 关 键 词： | 经济政策不确定性 碳排放 非对称影响 环境库兹涅茨曲线 非线性面板自回归分布滞后模型 中介效应 中国 |
| 收稿时间： | 2021-11-19 |
| 修稿时间： | 2022-04-15 |
Symmetric and asymmetric impacts of economic policy uncertainty on China’s carbon emissions |
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| LIU Yan,ZHAO Jing,LI Chen.Symmetric and asymmetric impacts of economic policy uncertainty on China’s carbon emissions[J].Resources Science,2022,44(6):1091-1104. | |
| Authors: | LIU Yan ZHAO Jing LI Chen |
| Institution: | 1. School of Economics, Ocean University of China, Qingdao 266100, China 2. Marine Development Studies Institute, Ocean University of China, Qingdao 266100, China |
| Abstract: | Under the background of rapid global economic transformation, economic policy uncertainty (EPU) has penetrated into all fields of production and life, and a proper understanding of the environmental risks brought by EPU is crucial to the achievement of the carbon peak and carbon neutrality goals. Based on the asymmetric transmission effect perspective, this study empirically examined the symmetric and asymmetric effects of EPU on carbon emissions in the long and short term using the panel data of 30 Chinese provinces from 2003 to 2017, developed heterogeneity analysis based on the level of economic development, and constructed a mediation effect model to analyze the mechanism of the effect of rising and falling EPU on carbon emissions. The results show that: (1) There is an asymmetric effect of EPU on carbon emissions in the short term and a symmetric effect in the long term. In the short term, a rise in EPU significantly affects carbon emissions, while a fall in EPU has an insignificant effect on carbon emissions. In the long term, there is a negative linear relationship between the two, and a decrease in EPU promotes carbon emissions. (2) The effect of EPU on carbon emissions shows significant regional heterogeneity depending on the level of economic development. In the short term, the effect of EPU change is not significant for the eastern region, but significant for the central and western regions, and shows asymmetric effects; in the long term, only the decline of EPU in the eastern region increases carbon emissions, and the EPU and carbon emissions in the central and western regions show a negative linear relationship. (3) Carbon emissions adjust at different speeds in different regions after EPU shocks, with the eastern region having a higher self-regulation ability than the central and western regions, and being able to adjust and stabilize carbon emission levels more quickly. (4) The impact of EPU on carbon emissions is mainly expressed through economic effects, with rising EPU leading to lower carbon emissions by suppressing economic growth dynamics, and falling EPU leading to higher carbon emissions by accelerating economic growth rate. In the future, the government should prudently adjust economic policies, improve the market information disclosure system, and give full play to regional comparative advantages to promote the development of new industries. |
| Keywords: | economic policy uncertainty (EPU) carbon emissions asymmetric impact environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) nonlinear panel autoregressive distributed lag (NPARDL) model mediation effect China |
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