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| 1980—2018年中国水稻生产变化的时空格局 | |
| 引用本文： | 张强,张戈丽,朱道林,邸媛媛,杨彤,刘若琪,董金玮.1980—2018年中国水稻生产变化的时空格局[J].资源科学,2022,44(4):687-700. |
| 作者姓名： | 张强 张戈丽 朱道林 邸媛媛 杨彤 刘若琪 董金玮 |
| 作者单位： | 1.中国农业大学土地科学与技术学院,北京 100083 2.中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,北京 100101 |
| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金项目(42171115);国家自然科学基金项目(81961128002);教育部哲学社会科学研究重大课题攻关项目(19JZD013) |
| 摘 要： | 水稻对于国家粮食安全具有重要意义。中国作为世界上最大的水稻生产和消费国,改革开放以来水稻生产格局发生了巨大变化,但是其生产变化完整过程的时空格局尚不清楚,特别是对于阶段性特征及区域差异的认识有待提高。本文基于省级面板数据分析中国1980—2018年水稻生产的时空变化,剖析播种面积和单产对总产量的贡献。研究表明：①1980年以来水稻总产量年际变化呈现3个阶段：波动上升时期（1980—1997年）,除广东省显著下降外,大部分省份显著增加;显著下降时期（1998—2003年）,南方地区下降较快;快速上升时期（2004—2018年）,东北和长江中下游省份显著增加,东南沿海三省（浙江、福建和广东）和四川盆地显著下降。②近40年中国水稻总产量显著增加,由13.99×103万t增加至21.21×103万t,增加了51.61%,空间上呈现“南北齐增”格局;单产与总产量变化相似,在全国范围内持续增加;播种面积则不同,呈现出“北增南减”的态势。③全国水稻总产量变化总体上以单产贡献为主（64.29%）,播种面积贡献为辅（28.57%）,1998年以来水稻总产量逐渐由单产主导转为播种面积主导,随着单产可能或者已达到增长瓶颈,政策调控对于稳定和提高水稻种植面积和总产量尤为重要。本文结果可为政府部门粮食安全政策的制定、宏观农业规划和结构调整提供科学支持。 |
| 关 键 词： | 水稻 时空格局 总产量 播种面积 单产 贡献率 中国 |
| 收稿时间： | 2021-05-07 |
| 修稿时间： | 2021-07-05 |
Spatiotemporal patterns of paddy rice production change in China during 1980-2018 |
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| ZHANG Qiang,ZHANG Geli,ZHU Daolin,DI Yuanyuan,YANG Tong,LIU Ruoqi,DONG Jinwei.Spatiotemporal patterns of paddy rice production change in China during 1980-2018[J].Resources Science,2022,44(4):687-700. | |
| Authors: | ZHANG Qiang ZHANG Geli ZHU Daolin DI Yuanyuan YANG Tong LIU Ruoqi DONG Jinwei |
| Institution: | 1. College of Land Science and Technology, Chinese Agricultural University, Beijing 100083, China 2. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China |
| Abstract: | Paddy rice, the essential staple grain in China, is important for national food security. As the largest producer and consumer of rice globally, China has undergone significant changes in the pattern of paddy rice production in recent decades. However, the spatial and temporal patterns of paddy rice production change since 1980 remains unclear. In this study, we analyzed the spatiotemporal patterns of paddy rice production change in China and determined the influences of planting area and yield on rice production during 1980-2018 based on the provincial-level statistics. The results show that: (1) The whole study period can be divided into three stages based on the interannual variations of paddy rice production: an unsteady increase phase in 1980-1997 (Stage 1), a significant decrease phase in 1998-2003 (Stage 2), and a rapid increase phase in 2004-2018 (Stage 3). Most of the provinces except Guangdong showed increasing trends in Stage 1. Almost all the regions, especially southern China, displayed decreasing trends in Stage 2. In Stage 3, Northeastern China and the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River Basin exhibited increasing trends, while the southeast coastal region (Zhejiang, Fujian, and Guangdong) and Sichuan Province showed decreasing trends. (2) Paddy rice production had increased by 51.61% in China from 1980 to 2018. Rice production showed a spatial pattern of increasing in the south and increasing in the north. The spatial pattern of yield was similar to that of production, which continued to grow nationwide. The interannual changes in planting area were different, showing a trend of decreasing in the south and increasing in the north. (3) Rice production change in China was mainly dependent on yield (64.29%), supplemented by planting area (28.57%). The contribution of joint-dominant factors had little impact on production changes (7.14%). After 1998, rice production change gradually shifted from yield-dominated to planting area-dominated. As the yield may have reached the growth bottleneck, policy regulation is essential for stabilizing and increasing the rice planting area and yield. |
| Keywords: | paddy rice spatiotemporal pattern production planting area yield contribution rate China |
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