| 世界和国家发展的超大趋势 |
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| 引用本文： | 顾朝林.世界和国家发展的超大趋势[J].未来与发展,2014(3):2-7. |
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| 作者姓名： | 顾朝林 |
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| 作者单位： | 清华大学建筑学院,北京100084 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家863计划项目（2013AA122302）、国家科技支撑计划项目（2014BAL04801）、北京市哲学社会科学规划项目（11CSA003）资助 |
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| 摘 要： | 本文主要论述了未来世界和中国发展的一些超大趋势，主要涉及人口和城镇化、经济和贸易、科学和技术、资源和环境、社会转型和绿色发展。文章认为：全球人口数量将进一步增长，尤其中产阶级和老龄人口会急剧增加，全球经济也将快速发展，但区域不平衡和发达国家债务危机会加剧，资源和环境的压力随着技术进步会趋于好转，第三次工业革命处在孕育之中。对中国而言，世界最大的经济体、全球制造业王国和最大的城镇化国家已经无容置疑，但社会转型将可能引发诸多的城市问题、社会问题和空间不平衡问题，走绿色发展应该是未来中国的必然选择。
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| 关 键 词： | 未来研究 世界发展 中国发展 大趋势 |
Great Development Trends of the World and China in the Future |
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| Institution: | GU-Chaolin (School of Architecture, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China) |
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| Abstract: | This article discussed some of great development trends of world and China in the future. They mainly related to population and urbanization, economic and trade, science and technology, resources and environment, social transformation and green development. The Paper considered that the global population will be continual growth, especially the middle class and the aging population will increase dramatically. The global economy will develop rapidly, but the regional imbalances and developed countries debt crisis will intensifies, pressures on the resources and environment will increasingly as improved technologies. It is possible that the third industrial revolution will be in gestation. For China, it is no doubt to become the world’s largest economy body, the largest manufacturing bases and the largest urbanization country in the world, but the social transformation will likely lead to many problems, such as urban, social and spatial imbalances, for this reason it is to take a green development road that should be China ’s inevitable choice in the future. |
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| Keywords: | Future research global development China’s development the great trend |
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