| 新一代信息技术产业的技术升级测度研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 新一代信息技术产业的技术升级测度研究.新一代信息技术产业的技术升级测度研究[J].科学学研究,2021,39(8):1407-1417. |
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| 作者姓名： | 新一代信息技术产业的技术升级测度研究 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 上海大学图书情报档案系;2. 中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院; |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金重点项目;国家自然科学基金青年项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 数字化创新催生了大量新兴产业，也促进产业技术快速变革，因此在产业技术快速演变过程中识别技术升级的过程特点及驱动要素尤为重要。产业技术升级的测度需要识别该过程中的多维度要素及其互动关系，特别是对于技术不断变革和产品快速迭代的新一代信息技术产业来说，技术升级过程是复杂的系统行为。为探究产业技术升级尤其是新一代信息技术产业的技术升级过程，本文以平板显示产业为例，构建新一代信息技术产业技术升级的复合系统模型，基于2007年至2017年数据提出多维度子系统有序度测度指标并实证分析复合系统协同度。通过对子系统有序度和协同度的变化趋势研究发现，新一代信息技术产业技术升级过程具有明显的阶段性、复杂性和动态性特征，产业技术升级伴随着技术结构的优化和去中心化的创新合作，多个技术领域的紧密创新合作催生了多领域主导技术的多元化发展。此外，产业技术升级同时也是生产要素驱动的产业规模增长向创新驱动的产业创新合作、技术结构优化和产业规模协同增加且子系统交互作用的过程，为了快速和有效嵌入全球竞争过程，需要从复杂系统角度制定更加科学有效的创新政策，从产业技术升级全过程出发，考虑新兴产业发展的多主体、多元化、开放性和不确定性并存的特征。研究结果为系统分析中国场景下，新一代信息技术产业等追赶型产业的技术升级特点提供理论和实证依据。
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| 收稿时间： | 2020-07-16 |
Study of industry technology upgrading measurements of New Generation of Information Technology industry |
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| Abstract: | With the cross disciplinary digital innovation promoting the emergence of a mass number of emerging industries, and therefore accelerates the revolution of industrial technology, both of emerging and traditional industries. The construction of digital economic system already showed that the development of New Generation of Information Technology industry has significant impacts on other industries and economic development. To measure the industry technology upgrading process scientifically and roundly, multiple dimensional elements and its’ interactions need to be identified firstly. Especially for emerging industries such as New Generation of Information Technology industry which with frequent technology revolution and product iteration, and the technology upgrading process in technology intensive industries is the complex systemic behaviors from the angle of composite system theory. To explore the technology upgrading process, especially the technology upgrading process of New Generation of Information Technology industry, identifying key characteristics and drivers of industry technology upgrading will be of great importance in studying the rapid evolution process of industrial technology. According to this logic chain and research framework, by taking the flat panel display industry as the research example, the composite system model of industry technology upgrading of New Generation of Information Technology industry has been built. The composite system synergy degree has been empirically studied based on multiple dimensional ordered degree indexes of three sub systems (i.e., industry growth sub system, innovative collaboration sub system and industry technology structure sub system) from 2007 to 2017. Empirical data includes patent data from Derwent Innovations Index database and industrial data from the yearbook of information industry and DRCNET Statistical Database System.
Empirical findings of changing trends of ordered degree and synergy degree show the existence of significant periodical, complex and dynamic characteristics of the New Generation of Information Technology industry’s technology upgrading process. During the process of technology upgrading and industry development, and along with the frequent optimization of technology structure and de-centration tread of innovative collaboration, the intensive collaboration between multiple technological fields drives the diversified development of domain technologies. In addition to interactions of sub system behaviors, research findings also show that the upgrading process is also the dynamic transformation from the industry scale growing which driven by production factors to the synergistic growing which driven by interactions of industry scale growth, innovating actors’ collaboration and the optimization of industry technology structure. Multiple dimensions of indexes for measuring the technology upgrading process will be more valuable in studying complex technological evolution of technology intensive industry. In order to rapidly and effectively embed in global industrial and technological competition, more effective innovation policies should be made from the perspective of complex system and based on the whole process of industry technology upgrading. During the process of decision making by governments and firms, some characteristics of the development of emerging industries should also be considered including multi-actors, diversification, openness, and uncertainty. Therefore, research findings will provide theoretical and practical guidance for systemically studying the transition and technology upgrading of New Generation of Information Technology industry and other catching-up industries of China. |
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