| 基于GIS的西藏地区森林火险风险区划 |
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| 引用本文： | 林志强,路红亚,罗布次仁,王兴.基于GIS的西藏地区森林火险风险区划[J].资源科学,2013,35(11):2318-2324. |
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| 作者姓名： | 林志强 路红亚 罗布次仁 王兴 |
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| 作者单位： | 西藏自治区气象服务中心, 拉萨 850000;西藏自治区气候中心, 拉萨 850000;西藏自治区气象服务中心, 拉萨 850000;西藏自治区气象服务中心, 拉萨 850000; |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金(编号:41165011);西藏自治区重点科研项目:"西藏气象灾害区划研究"。 |
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| 摘 要： | 选取降水、最高气温、相对湿度、平均风速、积雪日数和雷暴日数等气象因子;高程、坡度和坡向等地理因子;植被类型和NDVI等植被因子及交通、人口、居住地等社会因子作为森林火险的4个风险因子,采用指标归一法、层次分析法和加权综合评价法对西藏地区森林火险进行了定量评价,按火险等级将全区分为低、较低、中、较高和高等5类风险区,分别占40.2%、38.5%、14.4%、5.1%和1.8%,风险等级呈东高西低、南高北低的地理分布。最后利用2001-2012年火情监测公报的96个火点资料,对风险区划进行了评价对比,不同火险等级区的林火发生概率比为:9.8:5.7:3.0:0.2:0,区划结果能够为西藏森林火险防御规划提供参考。
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| 关 键 词： | 西藏 森林火险 GIS 风险区划 空间分布 |
| 修稿时间： | 8/7/2013 12:00:00 AM |
Risk Assessment of Forest Fire Disasters on the Tibetan Plateau Based on GIS |
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| LIN Zhiqiang,LU Hongy,LUOBU Ciren and WANG Xing.Risk Assessment of Forest Fire Disasters on the Tibetan Plateau Based on GIS[J].Resources Science,2013,35(11):2318-2324. |
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| Authors: | LIN Zhiqiang LU Hongy LUOBU Ciren and WANG Xing |
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| Institution: | Weather Service Center of Tibet Autonomous Region, Lhasa 850000, China;Climate Center of Tibet Autonomous Region, Lhasa 850000, China;Weather Service Center of Tibet Autonomous Region, Lhasa 850000, China;Weather Service Center of Tibet Autonomous Region, Lhasa 850000, China; |
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| Abstract: | Wild fire disasters are dangerous threats to Tibetan Plateau forests and grassland, and forest fire risk assessment is an important part of forest fire prevention. Here, a quantitative evaluation of forest fire risk was divided over the Tibetan Plateau using meteorological, geographical, vegetation and social factors. The meteorological factor was calculated using precipitation, maximum temperature, relative humidity, average wind speed, snow days and thunderstorm days. Geographical factor was calculated by elevation, slope and aspect. Vegetation was calculated by land cover vegetation data including vegetation types and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). Social factor showed the impact of human activities on forest fire and was calculated by transportation, population and residence. The highest meteorological risk factors were located in southeastern plateau where less than 10% of annual precipitation falls during the forest fire period and the area has fewer snow days. The geographical risk factor decreases from southeast to northwest. The highest vegetation risk factor was located in the southeastern region and south of the Himalayan with subtropical and tropical moist mixed conifer forest. The highest social risk factors were located in the middle of the Yarlung Zangbo River basin. Fire risk is divided into five categories: very low, low, medium, high and very high risk, accounting for 40.2%, 38.5%, 14.4%, 5.1% and 1.8%, respectively. The spatial distribution is higher in the east than west, and south than north. Finally, 96 fire point data from fire monitoring bulletin from 2001 to 2012 was evaluated for risk zoning contrast. The fire danger rating area ratio of the probability of forest fires from very high to very low was 9.8:5.7:3.0:0.2:0. |
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| Keywords: | Tibet plateau Forest fire GIS Risk assessment Spatial distribution |
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