| 基于脱钩指数和LMDI的中国经济增长与碳排放耦合关系的区域差异 |
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| 作者姓名： | 周彦楠 杨宇 程博 黄季夏 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所, 北京 100101;
2. 中国科学院区域可持续发展分析与模拟重点实验室, 北京 100101;
3. 中国科学院大学资源与环境学院, 北京 100049;
4. 中国科学院遥感与数字地球研究所, 北京 100094;
5. 北京林业大学省部共建森林培育与保护教育部重点实验室, 北京 100083 |
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| 基金项目： | 科学技术部国家重点研发项目（2016YFA0602800）、国家自然科学基金（41871118）和内蒙古自然科学基金（2015MS0509）资助 |
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| 摘 要： | 以中国的29个省区作为研究单元,运用脱钩指数研究经济增长与碳排放动态耦合关系。基于LMDI（logarithmic mean Divisia index）因素分解法,从经济的规模增长、结构转型和技术升级等3个方面对各省区碳排放变化进行解析。对1990-2014年期间的研究有如下结果：1）中国的经济不断上升,碳排放也呈逐年增加趋势,而碳排放强度却逐渐下降,整体呈现"绿色转型"态势。从空间格局看,碳排放高的省区分布在北部沿海和西南经济区。2）中国的29个省区主要处于绝对脱钩、相对脱钩和扩张性负脱钩3种状态,不同省区经济发展与碳排放的耦合关系随着时间的变化而发生演化。3）中国经济增长过程中,经济规模的增长对碳排放增长整体呈现正向驱动作用,而技术的进步和产业结构调整的作用因区域而异。不同时期,中国各省区碳排放的主导效应也具有差异性,主导效应主要为规模效应和技术效应,结构效应的影响最小。
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| 关 键 词： | 经济增长 碳排放 区域差异 脱钩 LMDI |
| 收稿时间： | 2018-07-25 |
| 修稿时间： | 2018-11-30 |
Regional differences in the coupling relationship between Chinese economic growth and carbon emissions based on decoupling index and LMDI |
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| Authors: | ZHOU Yannan YANG Yu CHENG Bo HUANG Jixia |
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| Abstract: | To investigate regional differences in the coupling relationship between Chinese economic growth and carbon emissions, we selected 29 provinces and regions in China as the research units and developed the decoupling index to study the dynamic coupling relationship. Further, we analyzed the changes in carbon emissions in different regions from the economic scale growth, structural transformation, and technological upgrading aspects using the method of LMDI (logarithmic mean Divisia index). The results of the study for the period from 1990 to 2014 are given as follows. 1) With the ever increasing of Chinese economy as well as carbon emissions, the carbon emission intensity reduced, showing a trend of "green transition" as a whole. 2) The 29 provinces in China were mainly in the absolute decoupling, relative decoupling, and expansive negative decoupling states, and the coupling relationship between economic development and carbon emissions evolved with time passing. 3) In the course of Chinese economic development, the growth of economic scale drove the growth of carbon emissions, and the effects of technology progress and industrial structure varied from region to region. In different periods, the dominant effects of carbon emissions in various regions of China were also different. Economic scale effect and technical effect were the dominant effect, while the structure effect had the least impact. |
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| Keywords: | economic growth carbon emissions regional difference decoupling index LMDI |
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