| 中国能源保障水平分区初探 |
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| 引用本文： | 郭义强,葛全胜,郑景云.中国能源保障水平分区初探[J].资源科学,2008,30(3):336-341. |
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| 作者姓名： | 郭义强 葛全胜 郑景云 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,北京,100101;中国科学院研究生院,北京,100049
2. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,北京,100101 |
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| 摘 要： | 在经济高速增长的新形势下，能源保障风险日益凸现。全国能源保障分区研究不仅是能源风险管理的基本要求，也是经济发展对能源产业提出的新要求。本文阐述了全国能源资源的基础形势，并对1996年．2005年间我国一次能源生产和消费情况进行了分析；构建了由能源储量比、对外依存度、库存增减量、能源生产弹性系数、能源消费弹性系数、运输线路长度6个指标组成的能源保障指标体系，采用因子分析法确定各个指标的权重；并根据灰色聚类方法对全国30个省（市、区）“十五”期间的能源保障能力进行了评估与分区。结果表明：我国能源保障水平具有南低北高、东低西高的特点；能源低保障区主要集中在沿海地区，能源中等保障区主要涵盖华北、华东、华中等地，能源高保障区包括东北和西北大部华北西北部地区。
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| 关 键 词： | 能源风险 能源保障 灰色聚类 分区 中国 能源消费 保障水平 Supply Energy Capacity Regional 西北部地区 北大 东北 华中 华东 华北 沿海地区 结果 评估与分区 保障能力 灰色聚类方法 权重 因子分析法 |
| 文章编号： | 1007-7588（2008）03-0336-06 |
| 收稿时间： | 2007-02-04 |
| 修稿时间： | 2007-09-13 |
An Assessment of Regional Capacity of Energy Supply in China |
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| GUO Yi-qiang,GE Quan sheng and ZHENG Jing yun.An Assessment of Regional Capacity of Energy Supply in China[J].Resources Science,2008,30(3):336-341. |
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| Authors: | GUO Yi-qiang GE Quan sheng and ZHENG Jing yun |
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| Abstract: | With the rapid development of the country's economy, more and more risks of energy security have been escalated. Studying national energy security is not only required by energy risk management, but also by country's accelerated economic development. Firstly, this article analyzes the basic situation of energy resources storage, energy production and energy consumption in China. Secondly, the article draws out an index system for energy security, which including such six indices as percentage of energy resources reserves, dependent degree on energy importation, change of energy resources inventory, elasticity coefficient of energy production, elasticity coefficient of energy consumption, and distance of energy resources transportation. Subsequently the weight of these indices is calculated through factor analysis. Lastly, the article evaluates the capacity of energy supply in 30 provinces of China through grey cluster analysis. As a result, the capacity of energy supply of 30 provinces is classified into such three categories as high, medium, and low levels. The capacity of energy supply in Beijing, Shanghai, Zhejiang, Fujian, Guangdong, Guangxi and Hainan is low. Average reserve of energy resources in these provinces and municipalities is 1.55 billion tons of standard coal equivalents, accounting for 0.56% of the total reserves in the country. Average Gross Domestic Product in these regions is 4,446.15 billion RMB Yuan, accounting for 30.81% of the total of the country's GDP. Beijing, Zhejiang and Guangdong are important economic centers and with greater energy consumption. The capacity of energy supply in Liaoning, Tianjin, Hebei, Shandong, Henan, Hunan, Hubei, Anhui, Jiangsu, Jiangxi, Gansu, Qinghai, Ningxia, Guizhou, Yunnan is at medium level. The capacity of energy production in these regions is 0.62 billion tons of standard coal equivalent, accounting for 44.04% of country's total production. Energy consumption in these regions is 1.09 billion tons of standard coal equivalents, accounting for 54.02% of the total consumption in the country. The capacity of energy supply in Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, Heilongjiang, Jilin, Chongqing, Sichuan, Shaanxi, Xinjiang is higher. Energy reserve in these regions is about 169.69 billion tons of standard coal equivalents, accounting for 60.72% of total reserves in the country. The capacity of energy production in these regions is about 0.72 billion tons of standard coal equivalents, accounting for 52.62% of the total production in the country. The study shows that grey cluster method is practical in energy security analysis. The method used in this study breaks through limits of traditional energy planning and is significant to energy development and energy risk management. |
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| Keywords: | Energy risk Energy security Grey cluster Zoning |
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