| 基于VAR模型的资产市场规模与通货膨胀的关联性研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 荚超强.基于VAR模型的资产市场规模与通货膨胀的关联性研究[J].巢湖学院学报,2015(2):24-30. |
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| 作者姓名： | 荚超强 |
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| 作者单位： | 安徽大学经济学院,安徽 合肥,230601 |
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| 摘 要： | 观察近二十年来的货币供应量与反映通货膨胀的指标，发现在货币供应量高速增长的情况下，通货膨胀并没有十分严重。通过分析资产市场对通货膨胀的关联性，选取2003-2013年狭义货币供应量(M1)、房地产开发投资以及股票市场融资规模的月度数据，运用Cen-susX12季节调整法以及VAR模型进行实证分析。发现股票市场对于通货膨胀有显著的正效应，而房地产市场则对通货膨胀有一定的负向冲击，有缓冲的作用。合理地保持房地产市场与股票市场的波动区间有利于货币政策的稳健性，引导股票市场和房地产市场的供需对于通货膨胀合理运行来说有深远的意义。
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| 关 键 词： | 房地产市场 股票市场 通货膨胀 VAR模型 |
ON THE RELEVANCE BETWEEN ASSET MARKET SCALE AND INFLATION BASED ON VAR MODEL |
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| JIA Chao-qiang.ON THE RELEVANCE BETWEEN ASSET MARKET SCALE AND INFLATION BASED ON VAR MODEL[J].Chaohu College Journal,2015(2):24-30. |
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| Authors: | JIA Chao-qiang |
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| Institution: | JIA Chao-qiang;School of Economics, Anhui University; |
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| Abstract: | Through observing the money supply and the indicator of inflation in the recent twenty years, with the rapid growth of the money supply, there isnˊt a serious inflation problem. Through analyzing the relevance between the asset market and the inflation,this article chooses the narrow money supply M1 and the monthly data of real estate investment and financing scale of the stock market from 2003 to 2013 to carry out empirical analysis with the seasonal adjustment method of CensusX12, and VAR model. After the empirical analysis,the results show that the stock market has a positive impact on inflation while the real estate market has a negative impact on inflation and a certain buffer effect. So it is conducive to keep the reasonable range of fluctuation of the stock market and the real estate for the steadiness of monetary policy. Guiding the supply and demand of stock market and estate market in a reasonable state has a profound significance. |
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| Keywords: | real estate market stock market inflation VAR model |
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