| 科技进步、绿色全要素生产率与农业碳排放关系分析——基于泛长三角26个城市面板数据 |
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| 引用本文： | 张颂心,王辉,徐如浓.科技进步、绿色全要素生产率与农业碳排放关系分析——基于泛长三角26个城市面板数据[J].科技管理研究,2021,41(2):211-218. |
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| 作者姓名： | 张颂心 王辉 徐如浓 |
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| 作者单位： | 台州职业技术学院,浙江台州 318000;浙江工业大学经济管理学院,浙江台州310014;北京大学汇丰商学院,广东深圳100871;浙江越秀外国语学院,浙江绍兴312069 |
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| 基金项目： | 浙江省哲学社会科学规划课题"乡村振兴与绿色发展双重驱动下农业面源污染的趋势研判、政策评估与对策研究";教育部人文社会科学研究项目"绿色转型视角下低碳农业发展研究:生产效率、空间差异与影响因素" |
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| 摘 要： | 基于泛长三角4省市26个城市面板数据,通过系数法和超效率SBM模型等方法测算2009—2018年该区域科技进步贡献率、农业碳排放量和绿色全要素生产率,并利用自回归分析滞后模型(ARDL)分析三者之间的关系。研究发现:(1)科技进步在一定程度上对农业碳排放具有抑制效应,其中在长期视角下因受科技研发水平所处阶段、农民综合文化素养等多种因素影响效果并不显著,农业科技进步贡献率每增加1%则农业碳排放减少0.03%,但在短期视角下的抑制作用显著,且新技术在第一阶段的抑制作用更明显,在下年度略有反弹;(2)长期视角下农业绿色全要素生产率(GTFP)对农业绿色低碳转型发展积极作用明显,农业GTFP每增加1%则碳排放减少0.24%,而短期视角下的影响不显著,出于成本考虑等原因,短期视角下农业碳排放当期量会对未来3年碳排放产生影响。基于研究结论,提出大力发展有机农业,构建完善的农业环境监督管理体系,加大对低碳农业的关注和投入力度,加强区域间统筹协调力度,推动技术研发实现突破性进展等对策建议,为促进泛长三角地区科技进步和农业GTFP发挥积极作用,实现农业低碳发展提供参考。
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| 关 键 词： | 农业碳排放 科技进步贡献率 绿色全要素生产率 农业转型升级 低碳农业 |
Analysis on the Relationship Between Science and Technology Progress,Green Total Factor Productivity and Agricultural Carbon Emission:Based on Pan Yangtze River Delta 26 City Panel Data |
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| Zhang Songxin,Wang Hui,Xu Runong.Analysis on the Relationship Between Science and Technology Progress,Green Total Factor Productivity and Agricultural Carbon Emission:Based on Pan Yangtze River Delta 26 City Panel Data[J].Science and Technology Management Research,2021,41(2):211-218. |
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| Authors: | Zhang Songxin Wang Hui Xu Runong |
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| Institution: | (Taizhou Vocational and Technical College,Taizhou 318000,China;School of Economics and Management,Zhejiang University of Technology,Taizhou 310014,China;HSBC Business School,Peking University,Shenzhen 100871,China;hejiang Yuexiu Institute of Foreign Languages,Shaoxing 312069,China) |
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| Abstract: | In this paper, based on the panel data of 26 cities in four provinces in the Pan Yangtze River Delta, the contribution of scientific and technological progress, agricultural carbon emissions and green total factor productivity of the region in 2009-2018 are calculated by coefficient method and super efficiency SBM model, and the relationship among them is analyzed by using ARDL model. The research finds that:(1) The progress of science has a restraining effect on agricultural carbon emissions to some extent, in the long-term perspective, the effect is not significant due to the stage of scientific and technological research and development level and farmers’ comprehensive cultural literacy, for every 1% increase in the contribution rate of agricultural science, agricultural carbon emissions reduce by 0.03%, but in the short-term perspective, it is significant, and the inhibition effect is more obvious in the first stage of new technology with a slight rebound in the next year.(2)The positive effect of agricultural GTFP on the green and low-carbon transformation and development of agriculture is obvious in the long-term perspective, and the carbon emission will be reduced by 0.24% for each 1% increase of agricultural GTFP, while the impact is not significant in the short-term perspective, the current amount of agricultural carbon emission in the short-term perspective will have an impact on the carbon emission in the next three years. Based on the research conclusion, the paper puts forward some countermeasures and suggestions of vigorously developing organic agriculture, constructing perfect agricultural environment supervision and management system, increasing attention and investment in low-carbon agriculture, strengthening interregional coordination, promoting technology research and development to achieve breakthrough progress, etc., to provide a reference for promoting the scientific and technological progress and agricultural GTFP in the Pan Yangtze River Delta region to play an active role, and realize the low-carbon development of agriculture. |
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| Keywords: | agricultural carbon emission contribution of scientific and technological progress green total factor productivity agricultural transformation and upgrading low-carbon agriculture |
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