| 中国交通运输碳减排潜力分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 王靖添,闫琰,黄全胜,宋媛媛.中国交通运输碳减排潜力分析[J].科技管理研究,2021,41(2):200-210. |
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| 作者姓名： | 王靖添 闫琰 黄全胜 宋媛媛 |
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| 作者单位： | 北京大学深圳研究生院环境与能源学院,深圳 518055;北京大学环境科学与工程学院,北京100781;交通运输部规划研究院,北京100028;交通运输部规划研究院,北京100028;交通运输部规划研究院,北京100028;交通运输部规划研究院,北京100028 |
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| 基金项目： | 交通运输部交通运输战略规划政策研究项目"交通运输行业落实国家应对气候变化自主贡献决定目标行动方案研究";"交通运输行业温室气体排放清单指南及控制温室气体排放对策研究";交通运输部交通运输节能减排能力建设项目"交通运输'十三五'时期节能减排关键因素、潜力及资金需求研究" |
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| 摘 要： | 在预测中国交通运输需求量的基础上,量化设置运输结构优化和交通技术进步影响参数,设计基准情景、结构优化情景、技术进步情景和低碳情景,测算中国交通运输的碳减排潜力。研究显示:中国交通运输的碳排放,2020年受新冠疫情影响明显回落;到2030年,在技术进步、结构优化、低碳发展3种情景下的碳减排潜力分别为8.20%、7.08%、14.45%。其中在低碳情景下,公路、民航运输碳排放显著下降,水路、城市客运碳排放微降,铁路运输碳排放上升,公路、民航、水路、城市客运的碳减排潜力分别为23.71%、10.43%、2.76%、4.40%,而铁路运输的碳排放高于基准情景,增加了20.08%,主要原因是运输结构优化使得铁路货运周转量大幅提升,远超过铁路技术进步带来的碳减排效果,但对于交通系统整体起到了最优碳减排效果。
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| 关 键 词： | 交通运输 碳排放 减排潜力 |
Analysis of Carbon Emission Reduction Potential of China's Transportation |
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| Wang Jingtian,Yan Yan,Huang Quansheng,Song Yuanyuan.Analysis of Carbon Emission Reduction Potential of China's Transportation[J].Science and Technology Management Research,2021,41(2):200-210. |
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| Authors: | Wang Jingtian Yan Yan Huang Quansheng Song Yuanyuan |
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| Institution: | (School of Environment and Energy,Peking University Shenzhen Graduate School,Shenzhen 518055,China;College of Environmental Sciences and Engineering,Peking University,Beijing 100871,China;Transport Planning and Research Institute,Ministry of Transport,Beijing 10002&China) |
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| Abstract: | Based on the prediction of China’s transportation demand, this study quantifies the impact parameters of transportation structure optimization and transportation technology progress, designs the benchmark, structural optimization, technological progress and low-carbon scenario, and calculates the carbon emission reduction potential of China’s transportation. According to the research, for China’s transport carbon emissions, it significantly falls back affected by the epidemic of COVID-19 in 2020;by 2030, under three scenarios of technological progress, structural optimization and low carbon development, the emissions-reduction potential of transport is 8.20%,7.08% and 14.45%, respectively. Among them, in the low-carbon scenario, the carbon emission of road and civil aviation transportation decreased significantly, the carbon emission of waterway and urban passenger transport decreased slightly, and the carbon emission of railway transportation increased, and the carbon emission reduction potential of road, civil aviation, waterway and urban passenger transport is 23.71%,10.43%,2.76% and 4.40% respectively, while the carbon emission of railway transportation is higher than that of the benchmark scenario, which increased by 20.08%. The main reason is that the optimization of transportation structure greatly improves the turnover of railway freight, which far exceeds the carbon emission reduction effect brought by railway technology progress, but it plays the best carbon emission reduction effect for the transportation system as a whole. |
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| Keywords: | transportation carbon emissions emissions reduction potential |
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