| 四川省安全生产与经济社会发展关系模型研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 张胜军.四川省安全生产与经济社会发展关系模型研究[J].软科学,2011,25(6):123-126. |
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| 作者姓名： | 张胜军 |
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| 作者单位： | 四川大学经济学院,成都610064;四川煤矿安全监察局安全技术中心,成都610045 |
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| 摘 要： | 对四川省"十一五"期间相关数据进行灰色关联度分析,提取出影响安全生产状况的主要经济社会因素,并将这些因素纳入SPSS回归分析,建立起事故统计模型,揭示出安全生产具有与经济社会发展相吻和的阶段性特征;通过运用ARMA模型,预测出"十二五"时期全省生产安全事故下降幅度趋缓,安全生产工作将面临较大压力,提出政府必须根据经济社会发展的阶段性特征找准安全发展的应对之策。
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| 关 键 词： | 安全生产 影响因素 阶段性特征 预测模型 对策措施 |
Research on the Model of Relation between Work Safety and Socio -economic Development of Sichuan Province |
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| ZHANG Sheng-jun.Research on the Model of Relation between Work Safety and Socio -economic Development of Sichuan Province[J].Soft Science,2011,25(6):123-126. |
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| Authors: | ZHANG Sheng-jun |
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| Institution: | ZHANG Sheng-jun(School of Economics,Sichuan University,Chengdu 610064,The Safety Technology Center of Sichuan Coal Mine Safety Administration,Chengdu 610045) |
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| Abstract: | Based on grey correlation analysis during the Eleventh Five-Year Plan period in Sichuan province,this paper extracts the main economic and social factors that influence safety situation,and bring these factors into the SPSS regression analysis to establish accident statistics model.It reveals the joint characteristic between work safety and socio-economic development.By using ARMA model,it predicts the decline of work safety accident in Twelfth Five-Year Plan period,and the work safety will face tremendous ... |
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| Keywords: | work safety factors stage characteristics prediction model countermeasure |
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