| 我国冰雪旅游发展的系统动力学仿真研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 姚文娟.我国冰雪旅游发展的系统动力学仿真研究[J].吉林体育学院学报,2021(1). |
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| 作者姓名： | 姚文娟 |
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| 作者单位： | 吉林体育学院 |
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| 摘 要： | 目的:预测分析冰雪旅游业下一阶段的发展潜力,以此来规避风险、降低损失,实现冰雪旅游业发展的最大化效益。方法:利用系统动力学方法,借助Vensim PLE软件,构建我国冰雪旅游发展的系统动力学模型,仿真分析子系统中各影响因素之间的相互作用关系并探究冰雪旅游发展的动力机制。结果:增加潜在旅游者数量、加大宣传力度、加强基础设施建设投入金额、加大投资额度等发展策略均能不同程度地促进冰雪旅游发展;增加潜在旅游者数量、加大投资额度发展策略是实现2022年“三亿人参与冰雪运动”总目标的有力保证;以2022年为时间节点,2020—2022年增加潜在旅游消费者是首选的发展策略;2022年以后加强冰雪旅游投资额度是首选的发展策略。结论:未来冰雪旅游的发展可以通过控制潜在旅游者数量、加大投资额度及其相关因素,有效实现冰雪旅游的可持续发展。
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| 关 键 词： | 冰雪旅游 系统动力学 模型 仿真 |
System Dynamics Simulation Study on the Development of Snow And Ice Tourism in China |
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| YAO Wen-juan.System Dynamics Simulation Study on the Development of Snow And Ice Tourism in China[J].Journal of Jilin Institute of Physical Education,2021(1). |
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| Authors: | YAO Wen-juan |
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| Institution: | (JiLin Sport University,Changchun 130022,China) |
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| Abstract: | Objective:To predict and analyze the development potential of snow and ice tourism in the next stage,in order to avoid risks,reduce losses,and maximize the benefits of snow and ice tourism.Methods:Using the system dynamics method,with the help of Vensim PLE software,construct a system dynamics model for the development of ice and snow tourism,simulate and analyze the interaction between the various influencing factors in the subsystem,and explore the dynamic mechanism of ice and snow tourism development.Results:The development strategies,such as increasing the number of potential tourists,increasing the publicity,strengthening the amount of investment in infrastructure construction and increasing the amount of investment,can promote the development of ice and snow tourism to different degrees.The development strategy of increasing the number of potential tourists and increasing the amount of investment is a strong guarantee to achieve the overall goal of"300 million people participating in ice and snow Sports"in 2022.Taking 2022 as the time node,increasing potential tourism consumers from 2020 to 2022 is the preferred development strategy.To strengthen the investment quota of snow and ice tourism after 2022 is the preferred development strategy.Conclusion:The development of snow and ice tourism in the future can effectively realize the sustainable development of snow and ice tourism by controlling the number of potential tourists,increasing the investment amount and other related factors. |
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| Keywords: | ice and snow tourism system dynamics model the simulation |
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