| 基于博弈论的海上交通事故案例推理方法及应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 闫长健,孙世虎.基于博弈论的海上交通事故案例推理方法及应用[J].上海海事大学学报,2021,42(2):75-80. |
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| 作者姓名： | 闫长健 孙世虎 |
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| 作者单位： | 集美大学航海学院,河北交通职业技术学院航海分院 |
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| 基金项目： | 福建省教育厅项目（JT180260）；集美大学李尚大基金（ZC2018006） |
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| 摘 要： | 为有效积累和挖掘海上交通事故案例蕴含的宝贵经验和知识,提出一种基于博弈论的海上交通事故案例推理方法。从大量海上交通事故历史案例中提取案例特征构建特征指标集,采用偏好比率法和熵值法分别确定指标主观权重和客观权重,采用博弈论得到综合权重;根据案例特征数据类型,定义不同的指标相似度计算方法,利用灰色关联分析法筛选初始案例组成案例库;结合指标综合权重,构建海上交通事故案例相似度计算模型,进而从案例库中检索出与目标案例相似度最高的案例。通过对海上交通事故应急物资需求的预测,验证了模型的可靠性和适应性,可为海上交通事故发生后的应急决策提供一定的理论参考。
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| 关 键 词： | 海上交通事故 应急物资 需求预测 案例推理 博弈论 |
| 收稿时间： | 2020/4/16 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2020/6/23 0:00:00 |
Case-based reasoning method and application of maritime traffic accidents based on game theory |
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| Yan Changjian and Sun Shihu.Case-based reasoning method and application of maritime traffic accidents based on game theory[J].Journal of Shanghai Maritime University,2021,42(2):75-80. |
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| Authors: | Yan Changjian and Sun Shihu |
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| Institution: | Jimei University and Hebei Jiaotong Vocational and Technical Colleg |
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| Abstract: | In order to effectively accumulate and excavate the valuable experience and knowledge contained in maritime traffic accident cases, a case based reasoning method of maritime traffic accidents based on the game theory is proposed. The characteristic index set is constructed by extracting case characteristics from a large number of historical cases of marine traffic accidents. The subjective and objective weights of indices are determined by the preference ratio method and the entropy value method, respectively, and the game theory are used to obtain the comprehensive weights. According to the case characteristic data types, the different index similarity calculation methods are defined, and the grey correlation analysis method is used to select the initial cases to form a case database. Combined with the index comprehensive weights, a similarity calculation model of marine traffic accident cases is constructed, and then the cases with the highest similarity with the target cases are retrieved from the case database. The reliability and adaptability of the model are verified by forecasting the demand of emergency materials for maritime traffic accidents. The proposed method can provide theoretical reference for emergency decision making after maritime traffic accidents. |
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| Keywords: | maritime traffic accident emergency material demand forecast case based reasoning game theory |
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