| 基于模糊Petri网的易流态化货物海上运输风险评估 |
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| 引用本文： | 吴鹏,夏海波,吴建军,胡甚平.基于模糊Petri网的易流态化货物海上运输风险评估[J].上海海事大学学报,2019,40(3):63-68. |
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| 作者姓名： | 吴鹏 夏海波 吴建军 胡甚平 |
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| 作者单位： | 上海海事大学商船学院 |
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| 摘 要： | 为降低风险因素的不确定性和模糊性对易流态化货物海上运输风险评估准确性的影响,通过引入可信度概念,提出基于模糊Petri网(fuzzy Petri nets,FPN)的风险评估方法。对其风险因素进行分析,以易流态化货物海上运输事故为顶事件,建立层次化评估指标体系;基于FPN理论,构建风险评估的FPN模型;运用模糊推理算法对其进行风险评估。实例分析表明:基于FPN模型的风险评估方法适用于对易流态化货物海上运输风险进行评估,且评估结果比用传统的风险评估方法得到的结果更加客观、准确,能为易流态化货物海上运输的风险预判和航线规划提供参考。
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| 关 键 词： | 易流态化货物 风险评估 模糊Petri网 模糊推理算法 |
| 收稿时间： | 2018/9/11 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2019/2/22 0:00:00 |
Risk assessment of shipping liquefiable solid bulk cargoes based on fuzzy Petri nets |
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| Institution: | Shanghai Maritime University,Merchant Marine College,Shanghai Maritime University,Merchant Marine College,Shanghai Maritime University,Merchant Marine College and Shanghai Maritime University,Merchant Marine College |
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| Abstract: | In order to reduce the effects of uncertainties and fuzziness of risk factors on the assessment accuracy during the risk assessment of shipping liquefiable solid bulk cargoes, by introducing the concept of credibility, a risk assessment method based on fuzzy Petri nets (FPN) is proposed. The risk factors are analyzed, the accidents of shipping liquefiable solid bulk cargoes are regarded as the top event, and a hierarchical assessment index system is established. According to FPN theory, the FPN model for risk assessment is built, and the risk assessment based on the fuzzy reasoning algorithm is conducted. The example analysis shows that, the risk assessment method based on the FPN model is suitable for the risk assessment of shipping liquefiable solid bulk cargoes, the results are more objective am accurate than those achieved by traditional risk assessment methods, and it can provide reference for risk prejudgment and route planning of shipping liquefiable solid bulk cargoes. |
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| Keywords: | liquefiable solid bulk cargo risk assessment fuzzy Petri net fuzzy reasoning algorithm |
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