| 基于混沌理论的洪水灾害动力机制(英文) |
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| 作者姓名： | 杨思全 陈亚宁 王昂生 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 中国科学院大气物理研究所减灾中心, 北京100029;
2. 中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所, 乌鲁木齐830011) |
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| 基金项目： | 世界限行项目 (NOA3);中国科学院“西部之光”项目(98013010);NNFC(90102007)资助 |
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| 摘 要： | 随着全球气候的变化和人类活动的加强,洪水灾害越来越严重,严重影响了社会经济的发展。因此,研究洪水灾害的动力机制,进行有效地防灾减灾已迫在眉睫。以天山黄水沟突发性洪水为例,应用混沌理论对洪水灾害的动力机制做了深入研究。研究中,计算分析了黄水沟洪峰流量时间序列的关联分维数(D2 )、Kolomogorov熵 (K)等非线形特征。结果表明 :黄水沟突发性洪水具有混沌动力系统的一些特征,洪峰流量的时间序列分布是一个确定的低维混沌吸引子,黄水沟洪水可预报时间的平均长度约为 8天.
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| 关 键 词： | 动力机制 洪水灾害 混沌理论 |
| 收稿时间： | 2002-01-22 |
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| Authors: | Yang Siquan Chen Yaning Wang Angsheng |
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| Abstract: | With the change of global climate and the intensifying of human action, flood disaster has become more serious day after day, and affected development of economy and society greatly. Therefore, it is urgent to make clear the dynamic mechanism of flood disaster. Taking Ice-dammed lake outburst flood disaster in Tianshan mountains as an example, dynamic mechanism of flood disaster has been studied by using Chaotic theory. During study, some nonlinear features of flood disaster peak discharge, such as correlation dimension D2 and Kolomogorov entropy K, are analyzed based on the time-series of Huangshui channel outburst flood disaster in northern slope of Tianshan. The results show: time-series distribution of Huangshui channel outburst flood disaster has some characteristics of Chaos dynamic system, and the variation of the flood peak discharge is a definite low-dimension Chaotic attractor. The average length of Tp (Tp = 8 d) calculated, which shows the time of forecasting by this Chaotic dynamic system, is close to the reality. |
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| Keywords: | dynamic mechanism flood disaster Chaotic theory |
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