| 论市场价值和团队结构——顶级欧洲足球联赛结果的预测因子分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 约根·格哈茨,米夏埃尔·穆茨,靳晟.论市场价值和团队结构——顶级欧洲足球联赛结果的预测因子分析[J].北京体育大学学报,2019,42(2):64-75. |
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| 作者姓名： | 约根·格哈茨 米夏埃尔·穆茨 靳晟 |
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| 作者单位： | 德国柏林自由大学社会学学院,德国吉森尤斯图斯-李比希大学体育科学系,北京体育大学国际体育组织学院，北京 100084 |
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| 摘 要： | 摘要：在瞬息万变的时代背景下，商业化和全球化进程从根本上变革了职业足球和足球队的组成结构。本论文试图研究在本土联赛中，足球队的成功与以下因素的关联性：（a）足球队表现为市场价值的货币价值；（b）队内不平等；（c）队内文化多样性；（d）队内成员流动。本文开展的实证分析囊括了2011/2012到2015/2016年的五个赛季，包括12场欧洲最重要的足球联赛。分析结果表明，球队在本土联赛中的成功具有高度可预测性。足球队的市场价值是目前最重要的单一预测因子，而团队结构的不同特性，如队内不平等、文化多样性、成员流动，相对来说影响力较弱。然而，团队的市场价值并不是在所有联赛中发挥相同的作用。联赛中资金实力不均的程度越低，团队市场价值对团队表现的影响就越小。
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| 关 键 词： | 关键词：商品化 全球化 多样性 不平等 足球 市场价值 |
| 收稿时间： | 2018/12/25 0:00:00 |
Market Value and Team Structure: Predictive Factor Analysis of the Results of Top European Football League |
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| Abstract: | Abstract: Under the changing background of the times, the process of commercialization and globalization has fundamentally changed the composition of professional football and football teams. This paper attempts to explore the relationship between the success of football teams and the following factors in local leagues: 1) monetary value of football team; 2) inequality within team; 3) cultural diversity within team; 4) team fluctuation. The empirical analysis carried out in this paper covers five seasons from 2011/2012 to 2015/2016, including 12 most important football leagues in Europe. The results show that the team''s success in the local league is highly predictable. At present, the market value of football team is the most important single predictor, while the different characteristics of team structure, such as inequality, cultural diversity and member mobility, are relatively weak in predicting. However, team market value does not play the same role in all leagues. The lower the degree of uneven financial strength in league matches, the smaller the impact of team market value on team performance. |
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| Keywords: | Keywords: commercialization globalization diversity inequality football market value |
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