| 亚洲、中国游泳纪录的灰色GM(1,1)建模与研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 袁建国,张秀华,杨书华.亚洲、中国游泳纪录的灰色GM(1,1)建模与研究[J].北京体育大学学报,2002,25(6):784-786. |
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| 作者姓名： | 袁建国 张秀华 杨书华 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 温州师范学院体育系,浙江,温州,325003;2. 齐齐哈尔大学科研处,黑龙江,齐齐哈尔,161006 |
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| 基金项目： | 黑龙江省教育厅人文社会科学基金;9542034; |
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| 摘 要： | 运用灰色系统理论中的模型方法,建立了亚洲男子12项游泳纪录、女子14项游泳纪录和中国男子12项游泳纪录、女子13项游泳纪录的GM(1,1)预测模型,并对建立的亚洲、中国游泳纪录的GM(1,1)预测模型进行了后验差检验,结果表明:预测模型精度均为一级,模型精度较高,具有一定的实用价值,可以用来揭示亚洲、中国游泳运动成绩的发展趋势.并对2002年亚洲、中国游泳运动成绩进行了预测.
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| 关 键 词： | 游泳 纪录 亚洲 中国 灰色GM(1 1)模型 |
| 文章编号： | 1007-3612(2002)06-0784-03 |
| 修稿时间： | 2001年9月10日 |
Establishment and Study of Gray Model (1,1) for Swimming Records in Asia and China |
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| YUAN Jian guo ,ZHANG Xiu hua ,YANG Shu hua.Establishment and Study of Gray Model (1,1) for Swimming Records in Asia and China[J].Journal of Beijing Sport University,2002,25(6):784-786. |
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| Authors: | YUAN Jian guo ZHANG Xiu hua YANG Shu hua |
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| Institution: | YUAN Jian guo 1,ZHANG Xiu hua 1,YANG Shu hua 2 |
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| Abstract: | Based on the model method of the gray systematic theory, the gray model (GM)(1,1)for swimming records of Asia and China, including 12 men's, 14 women's records of Asia and 12 men's, 13 women's records of China was established. The prediction model for the Chinese swimming record -GM (1,1) was proved to be accurate by a posterior error check. It was shown that the precision of this sort of model is of the first class and of practical value, which can be used to reveal the development tendency of the swimming performances in Asia and China. And the swimming performances of the Chinese and the Asian swimmers in 2002 were predicted as well. |
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| Keywords: | swimming record Asia China gray model (GM) 1 1 |
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