| 田径世锦赛男子成绩发展态势及灰色预测研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 陈亮.田径世锦赛男子成绩发展态势及灰色预测研究[J].体育科技,2006,27(1):47-50. |
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| 作者姓名： | 陈亮 |
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| 作者单位： | 曲阜师范大学体育科学学院,曲阜,273165 |
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| 摘 要： | 以第三至第十届田径世界锦标赛男子各项前三名成绩为研究对象,利用灰色预测GM(1,1)模型中的发展系数来探讨田径世锦赛男子项目的发展趋势。结果显示,三至七届绝大部分项目呈发展上升趋势;但从第七届之后除400 m之外,男子短距离径赛、中长距离径赛、田赛和十项全能项目都呈下降趋势,而长距离径赛、竞走和跨栏项目则呈增长态势。在此基础上,利用三数据建模预测法,给出了田径世锦赛主要男子项目的预测模型和第十届田径世锦赛的预测成绩。
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| 关 键 词： | 田径世锦赛 男子项目 发展系数 预测 三数据建模 |
A Research on Developing Trend Analyses and Grey Prediction of Athletic Performance in World Championship of Track and Field |
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| Chen Liang.A Research on Developing Trend Analyses and Grey Prediction of Athletic Performance in World Championship of Track and Field[J].Sport Science And Technology,2006,27(1):47-50. |
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| Authors: | Chen Liang |
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| Abstract: | Taking the top three in every man's item in the third to tenth World Championship of Track and Field as the research objects,this paper explores the developing trend of the man's items in World Championship of Track and Field by applying the development coefficient in Grey Prediction GM(1,1) model.The result shows that the level of the most items has increased from the third to seventh Championship,but from the seventh championship,the level of man's sprinting items,mid and long distance items,field items and decathlon item,except 400m dash,has decreased,and yet the level of long distance running items,heal-to-toe walking and hurdling items has still kept increasing.On this basis and by applying three data modeling predict law,the prediction model for the main items of World Championship of Track and Field and the prediction result of the tenth World Championship of Track and Field have been counted out. |
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| Keywords: | world championship of track and field men's event develop coefficient prediction three data modeling |
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