| 我国体育产业发展与国民经济增长关系的实证研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 李国,孙庆祝.我国体育产业发展与国民经济增长关系的实证研究[J].武汉体育学院学报,2019,53(1):43-51,75. |
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| 作者姓名： | 李国 孙庆祝 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 南京工业大学 体育部, 江苏 南京 211816;2. 南京师范大学 体育科学学院, 江苏 南京 210023 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家社会科学基金项目（17BTY099）；江苏省哲学社会科学基金项目（17TYD001）；教育部人文社会科学研究青年项目（16YJC890011）；山东省社会科学规划研究青年项目（11DTYJ01）。 |
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| 摘 要： | 运用文献资料、数理统计、VAR模型等方法,基于2005—2015年国民经济与体育产业发展统计指标数据,通过协整检验、向量误差模型、格兰杰因果检验、脉冲响应函数与方差分解等,对我国体育产业发展与国民经济增长之间的关系进行实证分析。研究结果为:(1)协整检验与向量误差模型分析显示,体育产业增加值与国民经济发展之间存在正相关长期协整关系,这种均衡关系具有反向修正机制,当均衡关系发生波动时,当期以-1.744 073倍的力度对前一期偏离状态进行调整,将其拉回到长期均衡状态;(2)格兰杰因果检验显示,体育产业发展是国民经济增长的Granger原因,但国民经济增长不是体育产业发展的Granger原因;(3)脉冲响应函数显示,国民经济波动对其自身发展与体育产业发展均产生负效应,体育产业对于自身冲击的脉冲响应呈正相关趋势,并且能够迅速促进国民经济发展。(4)方差分解显示,国民经济在其自身发展与体育产业发展中的作用呈逐渐增大之势,体育产业的影响则呈逐渐减小之势。最后,提出了"识别均衡关系:促进国民经济与体育产业互惠共生发展"、"衡量脉冲响应:降低国民经济与体育产业均衡发展负效应"、"重视方差分解:权衡国民经济与体育产业影响因素相对性"、"完善政策法规:优化国民经济与体育产业均衡发展制度环境"等促进国民经济与体育产业均衡发展的现实路径。
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| 关 键 词： | 体育产业 国民经济 关系 |
| 收稿时间： | 2018-06-19 |
Relationship Between Sports Industrial Development and National Economic Growth in China |
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| LI Guo,SUN Qingzhu.Relationship Between Sports Industrial Development and National Economic Growth in China[J].Journal of Wuhan Institute of Physical Education,2019,53(1):43-51,75. |
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| Authors: | LI Guo SUN Qingzhu |
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| Institution: | 1. P. E. Dept., Nanjing Tech Univ., Nanjing 211816, China;2. P. E. Dept., Nanjing Normal Univ., Nanjing 210023, China |
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| Abstract: | Adopting literature study,mathematical statistics and VAR model,based on the statistical data of national economy and sports industry development from 2006 to 2015,analysis of the relationship between China's sports industry development and national economic growth was made through co-integration test,vector error model,Grainger causality test,impulse response function and variance decomposition,etc. Co-integration test and vector error model analysis showed that there was a positive correlation between the added value of sports industry,the development of national economy,and the long-term co-integration relationship. This equilibrium relation had a reverse correction mechanism,when the equilibrium relation fluctuated,the present period adjusted the deviation from the previous phase by -1.744 073 times,and then drew back to the long-term equilibrium. Grainger causality test showed that the development of sports industry(lnTYC) was the Granger cause of national economic growth(lnGDP),but the national economic growth(lnGDP) was not the Granger cause of sports industry development(lnTYC). Furthermore,pulse response function displayed that the fluctuation of national economy had a negative effect on its own development and the development of sports industry. The sports industry had a positive correlation with the impulse response of its own impact,and it could rapidly promote the development of national economy. Variance decomposition displayed that the role of the national economy in its own development and the development of the sports industry was increasing,and the impact of the sports industry was decreasing. Measures to promote the balanced development of national economy and sports industry were proposed. |
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| Keywords: | sports industry national economy relationship |
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