| 从2018年田径项目世界前20国家排名预测我国田径东京奥运会成绩 |
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| 引用本文： | 程泓人,吕婕,苑廷刚.从2018年田径项目世界前20国家排名预测我国田径东京奥运会成绩[J].体育科技文献通报,2020(4):4-8. |
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| 作者姓名： | 程泓人 吕婕 苑廷刚 |
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| 作者单位： | 国家体育总局体育科学研究所 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家体育总局体育科学研究所基本科研业务费专项资助(项目编号:基本17-34)。 |
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| 摘 要： | 本文收集了2018全年属于田径奥运会项目的各项排名世界前20的信息数据,客观描述当前世界田径整体格局的演变。并根据中国田径在2018年的表现,以及我国田径进入各项排名世界前20的人数情况,分析当前中国田径的发展现状,预测中国田径在2020年东京奥运会的成绩。研究方法采用的是文献资料法、数理统计法和逻辑归纳法。研究结论主要为:1.中国短跑未来应该在百米项目上重点突破,并力求整体水平的提高。男子100m和女子4x100m接力有望进入奥运前8,男子4x100m接力有望冲击奥运奖牌,其他项目争取全面参赛。2.跳跃项目发展良好,男子跳远具备世界前列水平且整体实力比较雄厚,有望力争奥运奖牌。男子跳高、男子撑杆跳高和男子三级跳远具备冲击奥运前8的实力。3.女子铅球有望冲击奥运金牌,书写奇迹。女子链球、女子标枪和女子铁饼有望争夺奥运奖牌。4.女子20公里竞走力争奥运卫冕并争取多人拿到奖牌,男子竞走实力下滑严重,在男子20公里和男子50公里竞走上要以争夺奖牌为目标。5.预测我国田径在2020年东京奥运会上奖牌数在7枚左右,金牌数在2枚上下。
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| 关 键 词： | 田径 奥运会项目 成绩预测 奖牌数 |
Forecasting Chinese Athletics Performance in Tokyo Olympics from the World Top 20 Athletics Countries in 2018 |
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| Institution: | (China Institute of Sport Science,Beijing 100061,China) |
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| Abstract: | This article includes the top 20 information data of the world’s top 2018 track and field events,and objectively describes the evolution of the current world track and field structure. According to the performance of China’s track and field in 2018,and the number of people in China’s track and field entering the top 20 in the world,it analyzes the current development of China’s track and field,and predicts the performance of China’s track and field in the 2020 Tokyo Olympics. The research methods used include literature data method,mathematical statistics method and logical induction method. The main conclusions of the study are:1. China’s sprint should focus on the 100-meter project in the future,and strive to improve the overall level. The men’s 100 m and women’s 4 x100 m relays are expected to enter the top 8 of the Olympics. The men’s 4 x100 m relay is expected to hit the Olympic medals,and other projects will strive for full participation. 2. The jumping sports are developing well. The men’s long jump has the world’s leading level and the overall strength is relatively strong. It is expected to strive for the Olympic medal. Men’s high jump,men’s pole vault and men’s triple jump have the strength of the top 8 in the Olympics. 3. Women’s shots are expected to hit the Olympic gold medal and write miracles. Women’s hammers,women’s javelins and women’s discus are expected to compete for Olympic medals. 4. Women’s 20-kilometer race is striving for the Olympics and winning many medals. The men’s competitive strength is seriously declining. The goal of competing for medals is to compete for men’s 20 km and men’s 50 km. 5. It is predicted that the number of medals in China’s track and field at the 2020 Tokyo Olympics is about seven,and the number of gold medals is two. |
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| Keywords: | Athletics Olympic Games performance prediction number of medals |
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