| 城市公交客运量的组合预测研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 甘卫华,孔晶.城市公交客运量的组合预测研究[J].科技广场,2011(2):106-108. |
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| 作者姓名： | 甘卫华 孔晶 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 华东交通大学机电分院,江西,南昌,330013
2. 华东交通大学交通运输经济研究所,江西,南昌,330013 |
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| 摘 要： | 公交客运量预测是公交线网规划与改进的重要依据,以往学者多采用单一的预测方法进行预测,预测精度偏低。本文采用组合预测法对公交客运量进行预测,该方法提高了预测的精度,为科学地制定公交线网进行了有益尝试,带来了社会效益和经济效益的改变,与以往方法相比有了明显的增加。基于这样一种思路,本文以南昌市公交客运量为例,对南昌市公交客运量进行了模拟预测,并对预测结果进行了相关验算,得到了预期结果,显示出组合预测法比单一的预测方法优越,适用于城市公交客运量预测。
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| 关 键 词： | 公路运输 乘客客运量 评价指标 |
Study of Combine-Forecast Method for Passenger Volume of Urban Public Transit System |
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| Gan Weihua,Kona Jing.Study of Combine-Forecast Method for Passenger Volume of Urban Public Transit System[J].Science Mosaic,2011(2):106-108. |
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| Authors: | Gan Weihua Kona Jing |
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| Institution: | Gan Weihua Kong Jing(1.School of Mechanical and Electronical Engineering,East China JiaoTong University,Jiangxi Nanchang 330013,2.Institute of Transportation and Economics,Jiangxi Nanchang 330013) |
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| Abstract: | The prediction for the volume of passengers transported by public transit is the important base for the programming and improvement of public traffic net work,The former scholars predicted in a single prediction method and the precision was low.This paper use combine-forecast method to predict the public transit passenger volume,it enhance the forecast predicts and lay the foundation for establishing the public traffic network,bring about social and economic benefits'change that better than before.So this p... |
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| Keywords: | Public Transit System Passenger Volume Combine-forecast Method |
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