| 省域大气污染治理的系统动力学分析——以福建省为例 |
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| 引用本文： | 高明,陈丽.省域大气污染治理的系统动力学分析——以福建省为例[J].科技管理研究,2020,40(1):250-258. |
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| 作者姓名： | 高明 陈丽 |
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| 作者单位： | 福州大学经济与管理学院,福建福州 350108;福州大学经济与管理学院,福建福州 350108 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家社科基金项目促进“城市矿产”开发利用的多主体协同机制研究(编号：18BGL176) |
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| 摘 要： | 从福建省经济、人口、科技、能源和环境等角度出发,建立大气污染防治系统动力学模型,设定单一政策、多项政策组合等情景进行系统仿真和模拟分析。研究发现,三种主要污染物的减排空间越来越小,只有同时将经济增长、产业结构、能源结构、环保投资等多项政策进行组合调控,减排效果更好。因此,提出合理分配固定资产投资、提高科技创新能力、优化产业结构、调整能源消费结构、完善环境经济政策等对策建议。
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| 关 键 词： | 系统动力学 大气污染 仿真分析 |
| 收稿时间： | 2019/2/16 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2019/3/18 0:00:00 |
System Dynamics Analysis of Atmospheric Pollution Control in Provincial Region:Taking Fujian Province as an Example |
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| Gao Ming,Chen Li.System Dynamics Analysis of Atmospheric Pollution Control in Provincial Region:Taking Fujian Province as an Example[J].Science and Technology Management Research,2020,40(1):250-258. |
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| Authors: | Gao Ming Chen Li |
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| Institution: | (School of Economics and Administration,Fuzhou University,Fuzhou 350108,China) |
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| Abstract: | In our country,the air pollution in city is becoming more and more serious. It should be a hot issue in social research to find out the influencing factors and put forward some relevant policy suggestions as soon as possible.This paper focuese on the economy, population, energy, technology and environment to make a comprehensive and systematic analysis of each influencing factor. At the same time it builds a systematic model of air pollution prevention in Fujian Province.This paper sets up a singel policy and several policy combinations to carry out systematic simulation and analysis,then choosing the optimal policy combination scheme for the development of air pollution prevention and control in Fujian Province. It is found that the emission reduction space ofthe three main pollutants is becoming smaller and smaller. The emission reduction effect is better when combining the policies of economic growth, industrial structure, energy structure and environmental protection investment.Therefore, this paper puts forward some countermeasures and suggestions to further promote the development of air pollution control in Fujian Province,such as rational allocation of fixed assets investment, improvement of scientific and technological innovation ability, optimization of industrial structure, adjustment of energy consumption structure, improvement of environmental economic policies. |
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| Keywords: | system dynamics air pollution simulation analysis |
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