| 新技术革命背景下基于SIR-SCR模型的供应链风险传导新机理研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 吕波,韩健,凡新凯.新技术革命背景下基于SIR-SCR模型的供应链风险传导新机理研究[J].科技管理研究,2020,40(5):199-206. |
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| 作者姓名： | 吕波 韩健 凡新凯 |
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| 作者单位： | 北京物资学院商学院,北京101149;北京物资学院商学院,北京101149;北京物资学院商学院,北京101149 |
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| 基金项目： | 北京市社会科学基金重点项目“北京市众创空间创新动力源的激发、传导与扩散机制研究（17GLA007） |
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| 摘 要： | 在小世界网络视角下建立SIR-SCR模型阐述供应链风险传导的范围和影响因素。经模型分析与仿真,在云计算技术引导下,风险传导时间加快,范围越来越广;在互联网4G、5G技术支持下,前期风险传导概率变大,风险传导峰值提前,风险传导的概率对风险传导有显著正相关作用;网络联盟能有效扼制风险传导的范围和速度,风险传导呈现一种倒W特征,但是在全球化采购,非核心业务外包的情形下,节点的利益联系更加紧密,单个节点的努力无法阻止风险在供应链中的传导,需要网络联盟发挥作用。
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| 关 键 词： | 新技术革命 小世界网络 供应链风险传导 SIR-SCR模型 仿真 |
| 收稿时间： | 2019/11/16 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2019/12/11 0:00:00 |
Research on the new mechanism of supply chain risk transmission based onSIR-SCR model under the background of the new technology revolution |
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| Abstract: | Risk transmission and containment of supply chain network have attracted much attention. In this paper, virus transmission model SIR was introduced into supply chain risk transmission from the perspective of small world network, and SIR-SCR model was established to describe the transmission range of supply chain risk transmission and the factors affecting transmission. Through model analysis and simulation, this paper concludes that risk transmission time is accelerated and the scope is increasingly becoming wider under the guidance of cloud computing technology. With the technical support of 4G and 5G of mobile Internet, the higher the risk conduction probability in the early stage is, the faster the risk conduction speed. At the same time the peak of risk conduction is coming sooner. The probability of risk conduction has a significant positive correlation effect on risk conduction. Because of the network alliances the risk of transmission has a w-shaped feature, which can have limits on the scope and speed of risk. In the background of global procurement, outsourcing non-core businesses and the interests of the nodes closer together, a single node still can"t stop in the supply chain risk conduction and need network alliances to work together. Finally, this paper puts forward some Suggestions for preventing supply chain risk transmission from the time, probability and recovery probability of risk transmission. |
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| Keywords: | new technology revolution small world network supply chain risk transmission SIR - SCR model simulation |
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