| 基于SD的我国油气资源——社会经济系统协调发展政策仿真 |
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| 引用本文： | 安贵鑫,张在旭,张晓慧.基于SD的我国油气资源——社会经济系统协调发展政策仿真[J].科技管理研究,2010(17). |
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| 作者姓名： | 安贵鑫 张在旭 张晓慧 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国石油大学(华东)经济管理学院,山东东营,257061 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家社会科学基金项目"提高我国石油工业控制力和国际竞争力的研究"，山东省自然科学基金研究项目"黄河三角洲可再生资源调查与利用研究" |
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| 摘 要： | 随着世界经济的高速发展,油气资源对人类社会经济发展的影响和制约作用也越来越明显.在建立了我国油气资源-社会经济系统协调发展SD模型基础上,将SD模型分为五个子系统,并对每个子系统的因果关系图、流图进行了详细的分析,通过一致性检验、结构验证以及合理性和有效性验证,说明了模型的有效性和可行性.并运用SD模型进行了政策分析以及系统动态仿真,通过对比各种方案的仿真结果,找出我国油气资源-社会经济系统协调发展的方向.
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| 关 键 词： | 系统动力学 油气资源 社会经济 协调发展 |
Policy Simulation of Coordinate Development for China's Oil-gas Resources and Social Economy System Based on SD |
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| AN Guixin,ZHANG Zaixu,ZHANG Xiaohui.Policy Simulation of Coordinate Development for China''s Oil-gas Resources and Social Economy System Based on SD[J].Science and Technology Management Research,2010(17). |
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| Authors: | AN Guixin ZHANG Zaixu ZHANG Xiaohui |
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| Institution: | AN Guixin,ZHANG Zaixu,ZHANG Xiaohui(College of Economics and Management,China University of Petroleum,Dongying 257061,Shandong) |
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| Abstract: | With the rapid development of world economy,the constraints of oil-gas resources are becoming more and more obvious for the human social economy development.The paper established the SD model of coordinate development for China's oil-gas resources and social economy system which was divided into five sub-systems.It also analyzed the cause and effect map and flow chart of each sub-system,the verification of consistency and structure.With rationality and effectiveness,the model showed the effectiveness and fe... |
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| Keywords: | system dynamics oil-gas resources social economy coordinate development |
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