| 碳排放影响因素解析--基于改进的拉氏指数分解模型 |
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| 引用本文： | 臧萌萌,吴娟.碳排放影响因素解析--基于改进的拉氏指数分解模型[J].科技管理研究,2021,41(6):179-184. |
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| 作者姓名： | 臧萌萌 吴娟 |
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| 作者单位： | 岭南大学,香港999077;江苏科技大学,江苏镇江212013 |
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| 摘 要： | 在投入产出分析的基础上构建改进的拉氏指数(Laspeyres)分解模型,将碳排放影响因素分解为投入总量效应、投入结构效应和技术进步效应,并在行业划分的基础上对中国2005-2018年产业部门的碳排放变动进行结构分解和定量测算。结果显示:投入总量效应是导致碳排放增加的关键因素,要素投入的低碳偏向具有明显的政策滞后性;技术进步效应波动较大,对碳排放有显著抑制作用;投入结构效应与高耗能产业比重有着极强的相关关系,最终对碳排放影响为正,但2013年开始逐渐转变为负向效应。中国经济增长方式依然粗放,产业结构调整的重点必须转移到控制高耗能产业比重上。为此提出加大产业结构调整力度、推进技术革新、转变要素投入模式、加强碳排放规制力度等对策建议。
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| 关 键 词： | 拉氏指数(Laspeyres)分解模型 碳排放 技术进步 结构效应 总量效应 |
Decomposition of Carbon Emissions Influence Factors: Based on Improved Laspeyres Decomposition Model |
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| Zang Mengmeng,Wu Juan.Decomposition of Carbon Emissions Influence Factors: Based on Improved Laspeyres Decomposition Model[J].Science and Technology Management Research,2021,41(6):179-184. |
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| Authors: | Zang Mengmeng Wu Juan |
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| Institution: | (Lingnan University,Hong Kong 999077,China;Jiangsu University of Science and Technology,Zhenjiang 212013,China) |
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| Abstract: | This paper build builds the improved Laspeyres decomposition model on the basis of input-output analysis,which decomposed the influencing factors of carbon emissions into total input effect,input structure effect and technological progress effect,and structurally decomposes and quantitatively calculates the changes in the carbon emissions of China's industrial sector from 2005 to 2018 under the industry division.The results show that total input effect is the key factor which could lead to an increase in carbon emissions,and the low-carbon bias of factor input has obvious policy lag;the effect of technological progress fluctuates greatly,which has a significant inhibitory effect on carbon emissions;the input structure effect has a strong correlation with the proportion of high-energy-consuming industries,which ultimately has a positive impact on carbon emissions,but it has gradually turned into a negative effect in 2013.China's economic growth mode is still extensive,and the focus of industrial restructuring should be shifted to controlling the proportion of energy-intensive industries.Therefore,the paper provides the necessary policy suggestion that increasing efforts to adjust industrial structure,promoting technological innovation,changed in factor inputs and strengthening carbon emissions regulations. |
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| Keywords: | Laspeyres decomposition model carbon emissions technological progress structure effect total effect |
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