| 2008年我国经济增长形势及政策建议 |
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| 引用本文： | 杨晓光,孙宏钧,黄德龙,程建华.2008年我国经济增长形势及政策建议[J].中国科学院院刊,2008,23(1):16-22. |
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| 作者姓名： | 杨晓光 孙宏钧 黄德龙 程建华 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院,中国科学院预测科学研究中心,北京,100080
2. 安徽大学经济学院,合肥,230039 |
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| 摘 要： | 展望2008年,一方面经济增长环境良好,经济增长的内在动力依然十分强劲,本轮经济周期还处于上行阶段,我国经济仍将保持强劲增长的势头;另一方面,面对国际国内资源品价格起伏不定以及长期结构性矛盾等不利因素,在防范经济过热和全局通货膨胀的一系列宏观调控政策的作用下,2008年我国经济增速将有所回落,预计2008年的GDP增长大致在10.2%左右、工业增加值增长16.6%、城镇固定资产投资增长24.2%、社会消费品零售总额增长16.7%、出口增长24.1%、消费物价上涨4.4%。
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| 关 键 词： | 经济增长 经济过热 通货膨胀 经济预测 |
| 修稿时间： | 2007年12月27 |
China's Economic Growth Trend and Policy Recommendations |
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| Yang Xiaoguang,Sun Hongjun,Huang Delong,Cheng Jianhua.China''''s Economic Growth Trend and Policy Recommendations[J].Bulletin of the Chinese Academy of Sciences,2008,23(1):16-22. |
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| Authors: | Yang Xiaoguang Sun Hongjun Huang Delong Cheng Jianhua |
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| Institution: | Yang Xiaoguang Sun Hongjun Huang Delong (Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science, CAS 100080 Beijing) Cheng Jianhua (Economics School of Anhui University 220039 Hefei) |
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| Abstract: | Look ahead at 2008, the economic environment is good and the internal driving force of China's economy keeps high. This economic cycle is still in its up stage, thus China's economy will keep a high growth trend. On the other side, the prices of resource products in both domestic and international markets change rapidly, and some other negative factors such as long-term structural contradiction do exist. Under a set of macro-adjustment policies for controlling economic overheating and inflation, the economic growth will slow down a little bit in 2008. It is predicted that the annual growth rate of GDP in 2008 will be about 10.2%, the annual growth rate of industrial value-added will be about 16.6%, the annual growth rate of fixed assets investment of city and town will be about 24.2%, the annual growth rate of consumption will be about 16.7%, the annual growth rate of export will be about 24.1%, and the annual growth rate of CPI will be about 4.4%. |
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| Keywords: | economic growth economic overheating inflation economic forecasting |
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