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| 2010年我国经济形势展望 | |
| 引用本文： | 杨晓光,程建华,陈磊,黄德龙.2010年我国经济形势展望[J].中国科学院院刊,2010,25(1):8-17. |
| 作者姓名： | 杨晓光 程建华 陈磊 黄德龙 |
| 作者单位： | 1. 中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院,中国科学院预测科学研究中心,北京,100190 2. 安徽大学经济学院,合肥,230039 3. 东北财经大学经济计量分析与预测研究中心,东北财经大学数学与数量经济学院,大连,116025 4. 中信证券风险控制部,北京,100004 |
| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金项目(70871109和70673009)资助 |
| 摘 要： | 2010年我国经济将在当前逐步企稳回升的基础上,继续保持平稳增长,预计GDP增长约为9.5%,工业增加值增长约为13.5%,城镇固定资产投资额增长约为24%,社会消费品零售总额增长约为20%,出口增长约为13.0%,进口增长约为15.5%,进出口总额增长约为14.1%,居民消费价格指数大约上涨2.5%。针对经济形势和未来社会发展目标,建议:继续发挥政府改善投资结构的引导作用;加强金融监管,防范金融风险;切实加大保障性住房供给,遏制房价过快上涨;遏制垄断行业人为涨价,减轻通货膨胀压力;深化收入分配制度改革,提高居民收入,提高消费在内需中的比重;顺应"低碳经济"发展趋势,持续推进"节能减排"。 |
| 关 键 词： | 经济形势 国际金融危机 经济复苏 预测 |
Prospects for China's Economic Trend in 2010 |
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| Yang Xiaoguang,Cheng Jianhu,Chen Lei and Huang Delong.Prospects for China''s Economic Trend in 2010[J].Bulletin of the Chinese Academy of Sciences,2010,25(1):8-17. | |
| Authors: | Yang Xiaoguang Cheng Jianhu Chen Lei and Huang Delong |
| Institution: | 1 Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science,Center of Forecasting Science,CAS 100190 Beijing 2 Economics School of Anhui University 220039 Hefei 3 Center for Econometrics and Forecasting,School of Mathematics and Quantitative Economics,Dongbei(Northeast China) University of Finance & Economics 116025 Dalian 4 Department of Risk Management,CITICS 100004 Beijing) |
| Abstract: | Looking ahead for 2010,it may be believed that China's economy will keep a stable growth based on the current gradual recovery.It can be predicted that the yearly GDP growth rate is about 9.5%,the growth rate of the industrial added value is about 13.5%,the growth rate of fixed asset investment in city and town is about 24%,the growth rate of the total retail value of the social consuming goods is about 20%,the growth rate of the exports is about 13.0%,the growth rate of the import is about 15.5%,and the to... |
| Keywords: | economic trend international financial crisis economic recovery economic forecasting |
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