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全球减排:方案剖析与关键问题
引用本文:吴静,王铮.全球减排:方案剖析与关键问题[J].中国科学院院刊,2009,24(5):475-485.
作者姓名:吴静  王铮
作者单位:1. 中国科学院科技政策与管理科学研究所,北京,100190
2. 中国科学院科技政策与管理科学研究所,北京,100190;华东师范大学地理信息科学教育部重点实验室,上海,200062
基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目40771076,中科院知识创新工程项目KZCX2-YW-325,国家"863"项目2008AA12Z204,中科院科技政策与管理科学研究所青年科研基金项目O801041Q01的资助 
摘    要:文章对比研究了人均排放权均等原则、Stern(2008)方案、Srensen(2008)方案、王铮等(2009)方案,研究发现:在人均排放权均等原则下,以1990年为历史排放起点是较为可行的方案,与之匹配需要建立全球碳排放交易市场;Stern(2008)方案虽能很好地控制全球气候变化,但是该方案以损失发展中国家较多利益为代价是不公平的;Srensen(2008)方案较Stern(2008)方案降低了对各国的经济冲击,但2100年各国均接近零排放,方案实施困难较大。目前国际减排方案制定的关键问题在于:发达国家必须比发展中国家承担更多的减排责任,同时必须比发展中国家先行减排。王铮等(2009)的方案在保障全球气候变化得到有效控制的同时,减小对发展中国家经济的影响,是一个相对较为公正的方案。

关 键 词:减排方案  人均排放权均等  Stern方案  Srensen方案  世界互惠方案

Global Emission Reduction:Scheme Analysis and Key Issues
Wu Jing and Wang Zheng.Global Emission Reduction:Scheme Analysis and Key Issues[J].Bulletin of the Chinese Academy of Sciences,2009,24(5):475-485.
Authors:Wu Jing and Wang Zheng
Institution:1,2 (1 Institute of Policy and Management,CAS 100190 Beijing 2 East China Normal University,Key Laboratory of Geographical Information Science,Ministry of State Education of China,200062 Shanghai)
Abstract:This paper analyzes several schemes for global emission reduction with comparison,including egalitarian principle for emission quota allocation,Stern (2008)’s scheme,S?rensen (2008)’s scheme,and Wang et al.(2009) ’sscheme.Results show that with the egalitarian principle for emission quota allocation,the year 1990 taken as the starting point of historical emission is a rather practical scheme.And a global emission trading system should be established to work together with the quota allocation.Stern (2008)’s scheme can control the global temperature obviously,but the developing countries afford relatively more to reduce emission,which is inequitable.Srensen (2008)’s scheme mitigates the economic impact on each country,but the emission in 2100 will approach zero,which makes the scheme hard to be implemented.Wang et al.(2009)’s scheme should be relatively reasonable,since the global climate change is under control,the economic influence on developing countries is alleviated and the emission per capita is basically equal.Two key issues should be noticed in scheme making that the developed countries must take more obligations on emission reduction and take mitigation actions earlier than the developing countries to compensate their tremendous historical emission,so that the developing countries can get the time for economy development.
Keywords:emission reduction scheme  egalitarian principle  Stem scheme  world mutualism scheme
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