| 2008年我国房地产市场预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 王雯珺,汪成豪,高鹏,董纪昌.2008年我国房地产市场预测[J].中国科学院院刊,2008,23(1):43-49. |
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| 作者姓名： | 王雯珺 汪成豪 高鹏 董纪昌 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国科学院研究生院管理学院,北京,100080 |
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| 基金项目： | 中国科学院预测科学研究中心的支持 |
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| 摘 要： | 本文利用2002年1月—2007年9月的季度数据,采用ARIMA模型,对2008年我国房地产市场投资、房地产市场需求、房地产市场供给以及房地产价格指数等进行了预测。结果显示:2008年我国房地产市场价格增幅仍将保持在一个较高的水平,房地产投资继续平稳增长,需求结构基本稳态发展,供给结构调整进程缓慢,供需不平衡矛盾继续存在。此外,本文还对2008年影响房地产价格的可能因素进行了分析,并给出了相关的政策建议。
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| 关 键 词： | 房地产市场 预测 ARIMA模型 |
Forecasting of the China's Real Estate Market |
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| Wang Wenjun,Wang Chenghao,Gao Peng and Dong Jichang.Forecasting of the China''''s Real Estate Market[J].Bulletin of the Chinese Academy of Sciences,2008,23(1):43-49. |
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| Authors: | Wang Wenjun Wang Chenghao Gao Peng and Dong Jichang |
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| Institution: | Management School of Graduate University of CAS 100080 Beijing |
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| Abstract: | Using the quarterly data from January 2002 to September 2007 and ARIMA model, the investment, demand, supply and price index to China's real estate market of 2008 are predicted in this paper. The results show that in 2008, China's real estate market price increases would remain at a high level, the real estate investment would continue a steady growth, the structure of demand would steadily develop basically, the structural adjustment of supply would present a slow process, the imbalance between supply and demand would continue to exist. In addition, the possible affecting factors to real estate price in 2008 are also analyzed in this paper, and the relevant policy recommendations are provided as a conclusion. |
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| Keywords: | real estate market forecasting ARIMA model |
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