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应对气候变化的碳收支认证及相关问题
引用本文:吕达仁,丁仲礼.应对气候变化的碳收支认证及相关问题[J].中国科学院院刊,2012,27(3):395-402.
作者姓名:吕达仁  丁仲礼
作者单位:1. 中国科学院大气物理研究所 北京100029
2. 中国科学院 北京100864
摘    要:该专项针对我国应对气候变化与碳减排的国际谈判以及国家可持续发展最佳途径选择等重大科技需求,有效组织中科院和相关高校及部委相关单位多学科交叉的优势力量,深入研究我国的陆地碳收支定量认证、碳增汇潜力与速率、增汇技术与措施以及未来全球增暖情景与大气温室气体浓度关系的不确定性等重大科学技术问题.由此形成支撑我国应对气候变化的温室气体减排增汇、国家可持续发展战略决策的数据资源体系、科学知识体系和技术支持体系;全面提升我国在温室气体排放认证方法论与技术体系、陆地碳收支定量评估与认证、生态系统与气候变化科学研究、生态系统增汇技术与措施、区域碳收支调控管理政策等研究领域的整体科学研究水平,实现国家应对气候变化科技支撑能力的跨越式发展,提高我国的国际影响力和外交谈判的话语权;形成一支具有扎实研究基础,并适应重大多学科交叉的科技队伍,实现我国科学家进入世界前沿科技舞台的战略目标.该专项将着力回答如下核心科学问题:(1)我国的温室气体排放量是多少?(2)我国陆地生态系统有多大的固碳潜力和速率?(3)在温室气体减排的“三可”(可测量、可报告、可核查)问题上我们如何应对?(4)如何认识气候变暖对大气CO2浓度的敏感性?(5)如何认识气候变暖对生态和环境变化的影响?(6)应对气候变化的绿色发展战略和政策是什么?通过专项实施将实现:自主建立我国能源、水泥等行业的碳排放计量体系,定量评估土地利用变化引起的温室气体排放;建立以卫星遥感、空中监测与地面网络监测和大气模式系统相结合的我国自主大气碳浓度和碳源汇监测系统,以及陆地碳收支的地面观测研究网络;综合研究和定量评估我国各类生态系统的碳增汇潜力与速率,评估我国重大生态工程的增汇贡献,研究人工干预下生态系统增汇的原理和技术系统,建立我国典型区域碳增汇的科技试验和示范体系;发展更为完整的新一代气候系统模式,定量预估未来气候增暖幅度相对应的大气温室气体浓度,理解人为排放气溶胶与气候变化的关系,进一步减少其相互关系认知的不确定性;分析过去百、千、万年时间尺度的气候变化事实,研究过去万年气候变化的自然规律和人类适应过程,增强对气候变化自然过程及其归因的认识;分析国际碳贸易市场机制及其对我国的可能影响,提出建立我国碳交易市场体系,林业、农业、牧业的减排增汇技术和经济政策,国内地区和行业间的生态补偿政策与碳管理体制等相关问题的政策建议与技术支撑体系.

关 键 词:气候变化  碳收支  生态系统  气溶胶  土地利用  IPCC应用

Climate Change: Carbon Budget and Relevant Issues
Lu Daren and Ding Zhongli.Climate Change: Carbon Budget and Relevant Issues[J].Bulletin of the Chinese Academy of Sciences,2012,27(3):395-402.
Authors:Lu Daren and Ding Zhongli
Institution:1 Institute of Atmospheric Physics,CAS 100029 Beijng 2 Chinese Academy of Sciences 100864 Bejing)
Abstract:The program aims to address the key scientific issues urgently needed in China’s participance in the international negotiation on climate change and the reduction of net green house gases(GHGs) emissions,and the selection of the optimal route of the national sustainable development.Under the framework of the program,cross-cutting multi-disciplinary research of Chinese Academy of Sciences,related universities and institutes of ministries will be launched to investigate major questions including accurate estimation of national anthropogenic GHGs emissions,quantitative verification of terrestrial carbon budget,the carbon sequestration rate and potential of increment of carbon sink,techniques and technology of increment in China,and uncertainties regarding relationship of future global warming scenarios and concentration of GHGs.Based on the research results of the program,the data resources system,scientific knowledge system and technical support system will be built to provide consultation for decision-makers to address climate change,in particular,on the issues of GHGs reduction,increment of carbon sink,and national sustainable development strategy.The program will promote the whole research capability of China on methodology and technology of verification of GHGs emission,quantitative assessment and verification of terrestrial carbon budget,ecosystem and climate change research,techniques and methods of ecosystem carbon sink increment,and policy of regional carbon budget management,etc,and therefore will make breakthrough in China’s science and technology capacity of addressing climate change,and raise China’s international profile and voice in the diplomacy.The program will also build a team of solid research foundation and will be adapt to major multi-disciplinary cross-cutting research.The program will strive to answer the following key science questions:(1)What is total amount of greenhouse gas emission in China?(2)What is the potential carbon sequestration rate and potential increment of carbon sink of regional terrestrial ecosystem?(3)How shall we address MRV(Measurable,Reportable,Verifiable) requirement in greenhouse abatement?(4)How do we understand the sensitivity of global warming to atmospheric CO2 concentration?(5)How do we understand the effect of global warming on ecosystem and environment change?(6)What is "green" development strategy and policy in response to climate change? Objectives of the program are:(1)To establish independent carbon emission measurement system in energy,cement and other industries,and quantitatively assess greenhouse gas emission caused by land use;(2)To establish independent atmospheric carbon concentration and carbon sink/source monitoring system which incorporates satellite remote sensing,airborne monitoring,surface network monitoring and atmospheric general circulation modeling,and build land observation network to study terrestrial carbon budget;(3)To synthetically study and quantitatively assess the carbon sequestration rate and potential increment of carbon sink of various ecosystem in China,evaluate the sink contribution of major ecosystem projects in China,study the mechanism and technical system of intervened carbon sink increment,and establish prototype system of carbon sink increment;(4)To develop a more integrated new generation climate system model,quantitatively project greenhouse gas concentration corresponding to future global warming scale,understand the relationship between anthropogenic aerosols and climate change,and reduce uncertainties in the relationship;(5)To analyze the facts of climate change in the past century,millennium,and ten thousand years time scale,to study natural climate variability in the past ten thousand years and adaptability of human being,and to enhance the understanding of natural climate change process and its attribution;(6)To analyze mechanism of international carbon trade market and its possible influence on China,to propose to establish carbon trade market in China,to develop technology and economic policy of carbon abatement and carbon sink increment in forestry,agriculture and animal husbandry,and to provide consultation to policy making of domestic and inter-industry eco-compensation and carbon management system.
Keywords:climate change  carbon budget  greenhouse gases(GHGs)  ecosystem  aerosols  land use  IPCC
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