| 中国宏观经济政策模拟系统的开发及其应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 薛俊波,孙翊,吴静,王铮.中国宏观经济政策模拟系统的开发及其应用[J].中国科学院院刊,2010,25(4):428-433. |
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| 作者姓名： | 薛俊波 孙翊 吴静 王铮 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 中国科学院科技政策与管理科学研究所,北京,100190
2. 中国科学院科技政策与管理科学研究所,北京,100190;华东师范大学地理信息科学教育部重点实验室,上海,200062 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金，中科院知识创新工程青年人才领域专项前沿项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 本文以基于CGE模型的中国宏观经济政策模拟系统为例,根据系统开发的流程,从功能需求、非功能需求、系统设计的技术基础、数据库的设计等角度探讨了宏观经济政策模拟系统的开发。依据开发的宏观经济政策模拟系统对当前的大规模投资政策进行了模拟分析,模拟分析显示：3种国家投资方案对于GDP均有明显的拉动作用,均可促进城镇就业,但是投资全国的方案对农村就业不利;从区域差距的角度来看,投资全国的方案会拉大区域差距,而投资中西部方案和单独投资中部的方案均可缩小区域差距;从投资效率来看,单独投资中部的方案是效率最高的。
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| 关 键 词： | 决策支持系统 宏观经济 政策模拟 CGE 大规模投资 |
The Development and Application of Simulation System of Macro-economic Policies in China |
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| Xue Junbo,Sun Yi,Wu Jing and Wang Zheng.The Development and Application of Simulation System of Macro-economic Policies in China[J].Bulletin of the Chinese Academy of Sciences,2010,25(4):428-433. |
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| Authors: | Xue Junbo Sun Yi Wu Jing and Wang Zheng |
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| Institution: | 1,2(1 Institute of Policy and Management,CAS 100190 Beijing)(2 Key Laboratory of Geographic Information Science,East China Normal University 200062 Shanghai) |
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| Abstract: | Taking the macro-economic policy simulation system in China based on CGE as an example,according to the system development process,in this paper,the authors discuss the development of macro-economic policy simulation system from the point of functional demands,non-functional demands,technology base of system design,and database design.The authors also make simulation analysis of the large-scale investments policies based on the macro-economic policy simulation system.The simulation results show that three kinds of state investment program are all obviously useful to the growth of GDP and urban employment,promoting the employment in cities and towns.However,the scheme for putting all the investment to the whole country was harmful to the rural employment.From the perspective of regional disparities,the investment program will widen the country’s regional differences.Investment in the middle-west part and individual investment in central part may helpful for the reduction of regional disparities.From the view point of investment efficiency,a sole investment scheme for the Central part of China is of highest efficiency. |
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| Keywords: | CGE |
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