| 从智库研究到智库科学 |
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| 引用本文： | 王鑫,张慧琴,孙昌璞.从智库研究到智库科学[J].中国科学院院刊,2021,36(7):797-806. |
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| 作者姓名： | 王鑫 张慧琴 孙昌璞 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国工程物理研究院研究生院 北京 100193;中国工程科技创新战略研究院 北京 100088 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金委员会-中国科学院学科发展战略研究联合项目（XK2019SLC002、L1924037） |
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| 摘 要： | 智库研究是提升国家治理能力的重要手段之一。智库研究涉及多学科和多研究领域知识的综合运用,其研究成果一经采用具有较大的影响力。文章认为智库研究应提升为智库科学,即智库研究应具有广泛公认的科学研究属性——可证伪性。智库研究要基于准确、完备(合理选择)的事实和数据,建立客观的科学模型,通过定性研究方法和定量分析工具,给出有预测能力的客观的战略咨询方案。通过可控的纠错和证伪过程,使得模型和方法中共因性和多因性逐步减少,最终得到普适结论,并在应用实践中得到验证。
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| 关 键 词： | 战略咨询 智库科学 可证伪 |
| 修稿时间： | 2021/6/29 0:00:00 |
From Strategy Consulting Research to Science of Think Tank |
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| WANG Xin,ZHANG Huiqin,SUN Changpu.From Strategy Consulting Research to Science of Think Tank[J].Bulletin of the Chinese Academy of Sciences,2021,36(7):797-806. |
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| Authors: | WANG Xin ZHANG Huiqin SUN Changpu |
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| Institution: | Graduate School of China Academy of Engineering Physics, Beijing 100193, China;Chinese Academy of Engineering Innovation Strategy, Beijing 100088, China |
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| Abstract: | Think tank researches are the main element to advance the modernization of China''s capacity for governance, and they are multidisciplinary related to many research areas. The suggestions of think tank researches may have massive influences as long as they are adapted. In this study, we recommend that the think tank researches should be advanced to the science of think tank. The think tank researches should follow the widely recognized scientific research character-falsifiability. Based on solid data and evidences, think tank researches build objective models, develop qualitative methods and quantitative tools, and generate objective strategic consulting proposals with predictive ability. By controllable error correction and falsification process, we gradually eliminate the concurrence of causes and the plurality of causes in the models and methods, get the general conclusion and then the models and methods will be verified when applied. |
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| Keywords: | strategy consulting science of think tank falsifiability |
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