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用排空法探究单站暴雨预报
引用本文:马文玉,吴玲萍,王斌.用排空法探究单站暴雨预报[J].中国科学院研究生院学报,1990(2).
作者姓名:马文玉  吴玲萍  王斌
作者单位:湖南省气象局,湖南省气象局,中国科学院大气物理所 中国科学院中国科学技术大学研究生博士研究生
摘    要:本文在常规观测资料基础上用三次排空法较好地解决了单站暴雨的12—36小时预报问题.在1986—1988年6月份的暴雨预报试验中,长沙发生的三次达标暴雨(R日≥40mm/日)均报准.这可能意味着三次排空法基本上抓往了暴雨形成的主要机制。

关 键 词:暴雨预报  排空法  偏差风

RESEARCHING THE SINGLE STATION FORCAST OF STORM RAINFALL BY THE EXCLUSIONS METHOD
Ma Wenyu and Wu Lingping.RESEARCHING THE SINGLE STATION FORCAST OF STORM RAINFALL BY THE EXCLUSIONS METHOD[J].Journal of the Graduate School of the Chinese Academy of Sciences,1990(2).
Authors:Ma Wenyu and Wu Lingping
Abstract:In this paper, the three-time-exclusion method has been used on the base of the ordinary observation data and the problem of the forecast of single-station storm rainfall from 12 to 36 hours has been solved fairly well. In the test of the storm rainfall forecast in June of the three years (from 1986 to 1988), the three storm rainfalls reaching the standard (R>40mm perday) which occurred in Chang Sha were forecasted exactly. It means that the three-time-exclusion method has fundamentally caught the main mechanism of forming the storm rainfall.
Keywords:Storm rainfall forecast  exclusion method  deviation winds
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