| 新能源汽车产业的政策保护与利基构建——基于多层次产业演化的分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 何文韬.新能源汽车产业的政策保护与利基构建——基于多层次产业演化的分析[J].科研管理,2019,40(9):139-148. |
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| 作者姓名： | 何文韬 |
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| 作者单位： | 东北财经大学产业组织与企业组织研究中心,辽宁大连,116025 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家社会科学基金重大项目：“供给侧结构性改革下东北地区创新要素结构分析与优化对策研究”（18ZDA042）；国家自然科学基金青年项目：“基于产业政策视角的中国新兴产业震荡触发机制及其影响效应研究”（71703015）。 |
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| 摘 要： | 依据产业演化观点，将新能源汽车视为是在原有交通运输体系中出现的利基，探究社会技术体系的转变和产业政策的保护性作用对新能源汽车利基演化的影响。研究结果表明，在利基层次上，存在着新能源汽车技术利基向市场利基的演化过程，且技术利基宽度与市场利基宽度显著正相关。在社会技术体系层次上，一方面产业政策所形成的保护性空间有助于新能源汽车技术转化，另一方面反映社会技术转变的因素对新能源汽车利基的形成具有显著影响，其中新能源汽车产销比和废气治理投入与市场利基的形成负相关，而燃油价格、消费者购买力和基础设施建设水平与市场利基的形成正相关。据此提出根据产业演化阶段和层次设计产业政策的思路和方案。
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| 关 键 词： | 新能源汽车 利基 社会技术体系 产业政策 产业演化 |
| 收稿时间： | 2016-09-21 |
| 修稿时间： | 2018-06-26 |
Policy protection and niches construction in the new energy vehicles industry——An analysis based on a multi-level industry evolution |
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| He Wentao.Policy protection and niches construction in the new energy vehicles industry——An analysis based on a multi-level industry evolution[J].Science Research Management,2019,40(9):139-148. |
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| Authors: | He Wentao |
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| Institution: | Center for Industrial and Business Organization, Dongbei University of Finance and Economics, Dalian 116025, Liaoning, China |
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| Abstract: | The rapid development of the new energy vehicles industry has led to the increasing enrichment of related research. These researches focus on three issues: the first is technology R&D; the second is marketization; the third is industrial polices. In addition to the above three aspects, domestic researches also pay attention to the comparison of new energy vehicles industry policies between China and foreign countries, analyze the patent trend and technological development path of new energy vehicle industries, etc. However, the discussion on how emerging industries came into being, evolved and developed is limited. In essence, emerging industries represent an important outcome of national and social development. Whether Chinese economy is in a period of rapid growth or in the pursuit of quality and efficiency improvement under the New Normal, emerging industries are playing a key role in it. The reason why the research on emerging industries is neglected is that the data are difficult to obtain, and the development of related theories is lagging behind. In this regard, it is necessary to find rich, detailed and inspiring data to develop new ideas and theories, and thus explore the research for emerging industries.
Based on the perspective of industry evolution, this paper views the new energy vehicles as a niche in the originaltransportation system and explores the niches evolution of the new energy vehicles industry under the effect of socio-technical regime transformation and policies protection.
Specifically, at the level of the socio-technical regime, the focus of the research is not only on new products and firms, but also on the process of copying and subverting the socio-technical regime. The socio-technical regime is defined as the collection and storage of a set of rules on how to produce, use and manage specific products and processes, which define and characterize the boundaries of different technologies. The current transportation regime is based on internal combustion engine technology. According to evolution economics, a range of different market niches may emerge in a socio-technical regime. Under the condition of limited resources, diversified niches compete with each other in the market selection environment. Among them, the technology and products in a niche are constantly improved, and finally stand out and become the leading technology and products through the diffusion of learning and imitation. The changes accumulated at the niche level have spawned a new socio-technical regime and gradually replaced the old regime. New energy vehicle technology is a new technology niche in the original transportation socio-technical regime.
At the niche evolution level, the niche that appears in the socio-technical regime is defined as a series of resource combinations that can sustain the survival of the firms. The niche in the socio-technical regime is the “incubation room” of fundamental innovation. Its primary role is to evaluate the economic feasibility of technology and the attraction of technology to society, and to form a technology learning, experiment and protect network to avoid new technologies being affected by existing socio-technical regimes. At the same time, the niche is constantly evolving. When the technology incubation process goes smoothly, a real market niche will develop at an appropriate time and eventually merge into the mainstream market. The formation of niche is mainly affected by three factors: first, the emergence of new technologies provides performance improvements or new applications that cannot be met by existing technologies; second, changes in government policies; and third, changes in consumer preferences require newtechnologies to get satisfaction. As an emerging technology niche, new energy vehicles have been nurtured in a protection network consisting of government, automobile manufacturers and experimental consumers, and have transformed their technological achievements through market niches.
At the industrial policy level, in the face of complex external environments and stubborn existing socio-technical regime, new energy vehicle technologies need to be nurtured and developed in a protective space. Building protection is a long-term, complex process involving the continuous evolution of various actors at different levels to accommodate new needs, in which the government playing an important role. Under the condition that the existing socio-technical regime is still in a stable state, the government cannot force a major change in the regime. However, the government can stimulate the changes in the niche level of new energy vehicles by formulating policy measures, and try to adjust the niche evolution and regime transformation process, so as to achieve the purpose of linking the two levels. This is reflected in the fact that on the one hand, the government puts pressure on the existing socio-technical regime by formulating energy conservation and emission reduction standards; on the other hand, the government encourages the development of new energy vehicles by means of car subsidies and tax incentives. Therefore, government policies will play a role in the evolution of new energy vehicles and the transformation of socio-technical regime. It is the main driving force for the development of new energy vehicles industry.
The research results demonstrate that in the niches of the new energy vehicles industry, there exists the transformation from the technical niches to the market niches and the width of technical niches has a positive impact on the market niches. The industry polices form the protection space for those niches and benefit for the transformation of new energy vehicles technologies. The factors which effect on the transformation of socio-technical regime have influence on the niche transformation. Especially, the factors which reflect the adoption of the new energy vehicles and environmental regulation have a negative effect on the niche transformation, while the factors which reflect fuel prices, the purchasing power and infrastructure construction have a positive effect on the niche transformation. Based on those results we suggest that the policies design should subject to the development level of the new energy vehicles industry. |
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| Keywords: | new energy vehicles niches socio-technical regime industry policies industry evolution |
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