| 基于结构方程-组套索的复杂专利组合测度研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 任培民,赵树然,姜文远.基于结构方程-组套索的复杂专利组合测度研究[J].科研管理,2022,43(9):159-168. |
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| 作者姓名： | 任培民 赵树然 姜文远 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.青岛大学 经济学院，山东 青岛266071；
2.中国海洋大学 经济学院，山东 青岛266100 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家社会科学基金资助项目：“结构分析视角下的企业复杂专利组合价值测度模型构建与应用研究”（19BTJ042，2019.07—2022.12）；教育部人文社科规划基金项目：“基于高维高频复杂数据的非等间隔日内市场风险评估与应用研究”（18YJA790113， 2018.07—2021.12）。 |
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| 摘 要： | 恰当的专利组合价值测度是国家衡量企业创新能力、制定合理产业技术政策的必要保障；是企业技术合作、交易等得以顺利进行的前置条件。本文以复杂专利组合价值测度为研究对象，从结构分析视角出发，在选取测度指标的基础上，首先利用综合比较与统计相关的方法判断同类专利内部指标组合方式；接着研究不同专利组之间的价值组合，运用结构方程竞争性比较来确定专利组合最佳分组；利用组指数套索回归找出关键变量组和关键变量，构造双层复杂专利组合价值评价模型。在以药品为例进行分析后，发现药品同类专利内部指标组合方式以几何平均为佳、组间则按照专利性质分组为优，并得到药品专利组合价值公式。进而将不同方法加以对比，分析本文方法合理性。本文创新之处在于以复杂双层专利组合为研究对象、使用结构方程竞争性分析获得专利组合最优分组形式、选择组指数套索回归以确定专利组合定价模型。模型符合专利组合价值评价的现实数据特点，同时将组合结构分析与组合价值评价相结合，能够有效捕捉专利组合的内在价值。本文丰富了专利组合价值评价的理论和方法，拓展了专利组合价值与评价维度的测度关系研究。
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| 关 键 词： | 专利组合价值 组合结构分析 复杂双层组合 结构方程模型 组指数套索 |
| 收稿时间： | 2019-10-19 |
| 修稿时间： | 2020-11-09 |
Research on evaluation of the compound patent portfolio based on the structural equation-group exponential lasso method |
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| Ren Peimin,Zhao Shuran,Jiang Wenyuan.Research on evaluation of the compound patent portfolio based on the structural equation-group exponential lasso method[J].Science Research Management,2022,43(9):159-168. |
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| Authors: | Ren Peimin Zhao Shuran Jiang Wenyuan |
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| Institution: | 1. School of Economics, Qingdao University, Qingdao 266071, Shandong, China;
2. School of Economics, Ocean University of China, Qingdao 266100, Shandong, China; |
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| Abstract: | As an important subject of innovation, the innovation ability of enterprises is reflected in all the patents it owns, usually in the form of patent portfolio. It is of great significance to accurately evaluate the value of patent portfolio. In the macro sense, it is the necessary guarantee for the State to measure the innovation ability of enterprises and formulate reasonable industrial technology policies. In the microcosmic sense, it is the pre-condition for the smooth progress of enterprise technical cooperation, transaction and pledge financing, and it is also the need of product and project investment evaluation.
Based on the compound two-tier patent portfolio as the research object, the paper selects the indicator of forward cites, claims, family, backward cites and so on to construct the value evaluation model. First of all, the statistically relevant method is used to combine similar indicators of the value of patents within similar patent portfolios, and then to design a variety of patent grouping structures, to analyze the optimal grouping structure of patent groups by structural equations (SEM), and then to select the optimal variable groups and important variables using the group exponential lasso method (GEL), so as to determine the pricing formula of patent portfolio.
After analyzing the drug as an example, it is found that the combination of internal indicators of similar patent groups is better by geometric average, and the combination between patent groups is better by patent category, and the formula of drug patent portfolio value is obtained. The main conclusions are: compound patent determines the value of patent portfolio, product patent plays a complementary role, other types of patents have little effect on the portfolio value itself; in patent indicators, forward cites indicators are the most important, claims, the family plays a complementary role, backward cites do not have a significant role.
Later, the SEM-GEL method proposed in this paper is compared with the author′s other methods of further innovating and expanding the design according to traditional ideas, it shows that it has the advantages of reasonable grouping basis, high fit degree and clear combination form.
In addition to analyzing the complex two-tier patent portfolio of drugs, the model can be used to analyze the complex multi-patent portfolio of different industries and other issues，such as patent portfolio financing screening, high-tech product technology value evaluation, technology enterprise research and development strength measurement, research and development performance evaluation of researchers and many other applications and research fields.
The innovation point of the thesis is as follows: (1) the quantitative evaluation of complex double-layer patent portfolio is studied. The existing research only involves a single-layer patent combination, and most of the research is qualitative or simple related analysis; this paper considers the interaction between the internal patent groups of the portfolio, as well as the interaction between the patents within the group, and conducts a quantitative analysis. (2) Use the competitive analysis of structural equation model to obtain the optimal grouping form of patent. Existing studies on the interaction of patent values within patent portfolios are only theoretical analyses. However, competitive analysis can be used to verify the theoretical inference of the interaction between patent groups. (3) The group exponential lasso method is selected to determine the pricing formula of the patent portfolio. Using this method, different groups of variables can be filtered, and internal variables of the same group of variables can also be filtered. The overall impact of each group on the explained variable can be compared, so that the key variable groups and key variables can be clearly identified, which provides strong empirical support for the analysis of the problem. |
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| Keywords: | patent portfolio value portfolio structure analysis compound double-layer portfolio structural equation model group exponential lasso |
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