| 中国能源消费、碳排放与经济增长的关系研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 郑义,秦炳涛.中国能源消费、碳排放与经济增长的关系研究[J].科研管理,2016,37(8):130-139. |
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| 作者姓名： | 郑义 秦炳涛 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.复旦大学中国经济研究中心，上海200433；2.上海理工大学管理学院,上海200093 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家社科新常态下我国经济增长的动力及韧性机制研究(15BJL013;2015-18)，教育部基金项目:生态文明背景下我国节能减排实现路径与政策仿真研究(13YJC790220;2013-16)，中国博士后基金项目:增长趋缓视阈下我国碳减排的机制及政策研究(2014M561388;2014-16)，上海市教委项目:能源消费、碳排放与经济增长的短期及长期协整关系研究(14ZS160 |
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| 摘 要： | 本文基于中国1970-2010年能源消费、劳动、资本、碳排放及产出数据运用PSS（2001）协整检验法以及TY（1995）因果检验法研究这些变量间的短期动态关系及其长期协整关系。实证结果表明这5个变量之间存在长期协整关系。短期内能源消费、劳动以及资本对经济增长均有显著的正效应，碳排放的作用不显著；从长期来看只有劳动、资本对经济增长有显著的正效应。基于因果检验法我们发现能源消费、碳排放与实际产出均呈现双向格兰杰因果关系，且存在从能源消费到碳排放的单向格兰杰因果关系。结论表明中国若要有效减排，短期内势必要以适当降低经济发展速度为代价，但是从长期来看政府推行的节能减排战略不会阻滞经济增长。
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| 关 键 词： | 碳排放 经济增长 PSS协整检验 TY因果检验 |
| 收稿时间： | 2015-03-30 |
An empirical study of energy consumption,carbon emissions and economic growth based on the ARDL Model from 1970 to 2010 in China |
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| Zheng Yi,Qin Bingtao.An empirical study of energy consumption,carbon emissions and economic growth based on the ARDL Model from 1970 to 2010 in China[J].Science Research Management,2016,37(8):130-139. |
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| Authors: | Zheng Yi Qin Bingtao |
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| Institution: | 1. China Center for Economic Studies，Fudan University，Shanghai 200433，China；;
2. School of Management, University of Shanghai for Science and Technology，Shanghai 200093，China |
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| Abstract: | This paper examined the cointegration and the causal relationship between economic growth, carbon emissions, energy consumption,labour and capital in China for the period 1970–2010 by applying the cointegration approach developed by Pesaran et al.(2001) and using the modi?ed version of the Granger causality test proposed by Toda and Yamamoto (1995). Our empirical results suggest that there was a short-run relationship between the variables with a positive and a signi?cant relationship between capital and economic growth and between labour and economic growth,but the effect of energy consumption and carbon emissions on economic growth is not signi?cant. we found a long-run relationship among the variables with a positive and a statistically signi?cant relationship between capital and economic growth, but the effect of energy consumption,labour and carbon emissions on economic growth is not signi?cant. Further, applying a modi?ed version of the Granger causality test we also found a bi-directional causality running from carbon emissions to economic growth and from energy consumption to economic growth all with a feedback,And we also found a unidirectional causality running from energy consumption to carbon emissions without a feedback.The econometric evidence suggests that China has to sacri?ce economic growth or reduce its energy consumption per unit of output or both in order to reduce carbon emissions.however, the government of China can purse conservative energy policy and carbon emissions reduction policy in the long run without impeding economic growth. |
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| Keywords: | carbon emission economic growth bounds test TY causality |
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