| 对新产品开发的最优价值分析--基于Bandit过程的模型研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 谢武,陈晓剑,巩国顺.对新产品开发的最优价值分析--基于Bandit过程的模型研究[J].预测,2003,22(4):75-77,80. |
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| 作者姓名： | 谢武 陈晓剑 巩国顺 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国科学技术大学商学院,安徽,合肥,230026 |
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| 摘 要： | 新产品开发的成败直接关系到企业的生存和发展，因而有效的新产品开发始终是企业追求的目标。本文运用备择Bandit过程的原理对新产品开发的最优价值进行了一定程度的探讨。本文的最后结论认为新产品开发的最优价值取决于Gittins指标法则的有效性，即最终取决于市场占有率，对新产品需求预测的准确性，对消费者认知价值预测的准确性以及新产品投放市场的有效性，对这些变量的预测越精确，最优规则越有效，新产品开发成功的价值越大。
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| 关 键 词： | 新产品开发 顺序 Bandit过程 Gittins定理 最优价值 |
| 文章编号： | 1003-5192(2003)04-0075-03 |
The Optimal Value Analysis of New Product Exploitation--A Model Study that Bases on Bandit Process |
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| Abstract: | The result of new product exploitation greatly impact the survivorship and development of enterprise, as a result, the effective new product exploitation is a target that all enterprise seek all the time. The paper discuss the optimal value of new product exploitation according to the principle of Bandit process.The paper think: the optimal value of new product exploitation lies on the validty of Gittins index principle, namely it ultimately rests with the market quotient, the veracity that new product demand and customer cognitive value prognosticate and the validity that new product launchs, the more meticulous new product forecast, the more available optimal codex, the greater the successful probability of new product exploitation. |
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| Keywords: | new product exploitation sequence Bandit process Gittins theorem optimal value |
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