| 人口因素对我国基本养老保险基金收支平衡的影响研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 骆正清,陈周燕,陆安.人口因素对我国基本养老保险基金收支平衡的影响研究[J].预测,2010,29(2):42-46. |
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| 作者姓名： | 骆正清 陈周燕 陆安 |
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| 作者单位： | 合肥工业大学,管理学院,安徽,合肥,230009 |
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| 基金项目： | 安徽省教育厅人文社科资助项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 本文运用人口预测模型和基本养老保险基金收支预测模型,对未来我国人口状况和基本养老保险基金收支状况进行了预测;变动相关人口因素,测算人口因素变动下的基础养老金和个人账户养老金收支情况,得出相关人口因素如何影响基本养老基金收支平衡的结论.结果表明:对于基础养老金来讲,育龄妇女分年龄生育率的上升、职工的起始工作年龄的提高、退休年龄的提高、养老保险缴费人数增加或领取养老金人数的减少均有利于基金收支平衡.对于个人账户养老金来讲,职工死亡概率的降低不利于其个人账户养老金收支平衡的实现;职工的退休年龄越高,职工从养老保险制度获益越大,个人账户缺口增加.
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| 关 键 词： | 基本养老保险 收支平衡 人口因素 |
A Study on the Effects of Population Factors on the Payment Balance of Basic Pension Insurance Funds in China |
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| LUO Zheng-qing,CHEN Zhou-yan,LU An.A Study on the Effects of Population Factors on the Payment Balance of Basic Pension Insurance Funds in China[J].Forecasting,2010,29(2):42-46. |
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| Authors: | LUO Zheng-qing CHEN Zhou-yan LU An |
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| Institution: | LUO Zheng-qing,CHEN Zhou-yan,LU An (School of Manegement,Hefei University of Technology,Hefei 230009,China) |
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| Abstract: | This paper forecasts the situation of China's population and the fundamental old age insurance fund's revenue and expenditure during 50 years by using the models of Population Prediction and The Basic Old-age Insurance Fund's payments.Subsequently,new results in the revenue and expenditure of the basic pension and individual accounts pension are calculated under the different values of some population factors,from which the influence of population factors on the balance of endowment insurance is obtained.Th... |
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| Keywords: | fundamental old age insurance the balance of income and expenditure population factors |
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