| 世界石油出口能力预测及对中国石油进口的影响 |
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| 引用本文： | 王建良,冯连勇.世界石油出口能力预测及对中国石油进口的影响[J].预测,2011,30(3). |
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| 作者姓名： | 王建良 冯连勇 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国石油大学(北京)工商管理学院,北京,102249 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金资助项目，国家高新技术研究发展计划(863计划)资助项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 中国作为世界第二大石油消费国,研究世界石油出口能力具有重要意义.本文针对以往石油产量研究方法的不足,建立多循环模型对石油产量进行预测;同时,结合对石油消费量的预测分析了世界石油出口能力.结果显示世界石油出口能力的峰值平台期出现在2006～2016年,高峰出口能力可达27.52亿吨.针对世界石油出口能力未来走势,重点分析了世界石油出口能力下降对我国可进口石油量和进口石油价格的影响,指出未来我国石油进口量将不断减小,进口石油价格将不断上涨.
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| 关 键 词： | 石油出口 石油产量 石油消费量 预测 石油峰值 |
The World's Oil Export Capacity Forecast and Its Impact on China's Oil Import |
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| WANG Jian-liang,FENG Lian-yong.The World's Oil Export Capacity Forecast and Its Impact on China's Oil Import[J].Forecasting,2011,30(3). |
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| Authors: | WANG Jian-liang FENG Lian-yong |
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| Institution: | WANG Jian-liang,FENG Lian-yong (School of Business Administration,China University of Petroleum,Beijing 102249,China) |
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| Abstract: | As the second largest oil consumption country in the world,it's very important for China to research the world's oil export capacity.Firstly,a multicyclic model,which is established after analyzing the disadvantages of the current forecast models,is applied to forecast the future oil production.Besides,the oil consumption is calculated by the OCPC(Oil Consumption per Capita)method.At last,the world's oil export capacity is predicted by taking oil consumption from oil production.The forecast result shows tha... |
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| Keywords: | oil export oil production oil consumption forecast peak oil |
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