| 小麦保险费率厘定:基于小波分析与非参数估计法 |
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| 引用本文： | 李永,孙越芹,夏敏.小麦保险费率厘定:基于小波分析与非参数估计法[J].预测,2011,30(4). |
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| 作者姓名： | 李永 孙越芹 夏敏 |
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| 作者单位： | 同济大学经济与管理学院,上海,200092 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家社会科学基金，教育部人文社会科学基金 |
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| 摘 要： | 合理厘定保险费率是农作物保险开展的重要前提,可为政府保费补贴等支农政策提供决策依据.本文以北京市冬小麦为样本,采用小波分析和非参数估计方法相结合的方法,改进了农作物保险纯费率厘定方法,提高了计算结果的合理性与准确性,即,利用小波分析法确定作物单产的趋势产量,并在非参数高斯函数为核密度函数设定,借助Silverman的"经验法则”确定带宽,确定了样本数据的概率分布模型,最终完成了北京市冬小麦保险纯费率厘定过程.
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| 关 键 词： | 农业保险 小波分析 非参数核密度估计 费率厘定 |
Wheat Insurance Rate Estimation: Based on Wavelet and Non-parameter Kernel Density Approaches |
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| LI Yong,SUN Yue-qin,XIA Min.Wheat Insurance Rate Estimation: Based on Wavelet and Non-parameter Kernel Density Approaches[J].Forecasting,2011,30(4). |
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| Authors: | LI Yong SUN Yue-qin XIA Min |
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| Institution: | LI Yong,SUN Yue-qin,XIA Min(School of Economics and Management,Tongji University,Shanghai 200092,China) |
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| Abstract: | Determining accurately the premium rate is an important prerequisite for agricultural insurance.Which could be also a reference for government 's supporting policies(e.g.agricultural insurance subsidy etc.)related agriculture.By sampling wheat yield in Beijing,this paper combines wavelet analysis with non-parameter estimation approaches to improve the rationality and accuracy of pure premium crop insurance rating.Namely,with wavelet analysis to determine the trend of crop yield,the paper combines with non-p... |
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| Keywords: | crop insurance wavelet analysis non-parameter kernel density estimation insurance rate |
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