| 对外贸易与经济增长的相关分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 许启发,蒋翠侠.对外贸易与经济增长的相关分析[J].预测,2002,21(2):14-18. |
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| 作者姓名： | 许启发 蒋翠侠 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国煤炭经济学院数学与统计系，山东烟台 264005 |
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| 摘 要： | 本文首先讨论了对外贸易与经济增长之间的相关性；进而运用协整理论去研究这种相关关系，最后，更进一步地讨论了这种相关关系是否构成因果关系，实证结果表明，我国对外贸易与经济增长之间存在着极强的相关关系，文中给出了变量间的协整方程，通过格兰杰因果检验发现：出口或进口与国内生产总值之间只存在单方向的因果关系，而对外贸易总额与国内生产总值之间却互为因果，因此主张进口贸易与出口贸易并重。
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| 关 键 词： | 对外贸易 经济增长 协整 格兰杰因果检验 相关分析 |
| 文章编号： | 1003-5192(2002)02-0014-05 |
An Analysis of Correlation Relationship between External Trade and Economic Growth |
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| XU Qi-fa,JIANG Cui-xia.An Analysis of Correlation Relationship between External Trade and Economic Growth[J].Forecasting,2002,21(2):14-18. |
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| Authors: | XU Qi-fa JIANG Cui-xia |
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| Abstract: | This paper discussed the correlation relationship between external trade & economic growth and then applies Cointegration Theory to study the correlataion and discusses whether there is a causality in it in more details finally. The empirical result shows that there is a distinct correlation relationship between external trade & economic growth, and conintegration equation of variables is given in this paper. The Granger causality test shows that there is only single-direction causality between export or import and GDP, but there is a feedback causality relationship between export plus import and GDP, which indicates that import is as important as export. |
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| Keywords: | external trade economic growth cointegration Granger causality |
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