| 德尔菲法技术预见的缺陷及导因分析:行为经济学分析视角 |
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| 引用本文： | 张冬梅,曾忠禄.德尔菲法技术预见的缺陷及导因分析:行为经济学分析视角[J].情报理论与实践,2009,32(8). |
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| 作者姓名： | 张冬梅 曾忠禄 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 广东药学院,医药商学院,广东,广州,510006
2. 澳门理工学院,澳门 |
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| 基金项目： | 广东高校优秀青年创新人才培育项目资助 |
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| 摘 要： | 将行为经济学中的有限理性理论引入到技术预见中,运用该理论对现行技术预见方法--德尔菲法的缺陷进行审视,提出了德尔菲法技术预见存在有参考点效应和证实性偏差两大缺陷.通过回顾国内外4个调查研究文献,发现专家的信息源和分析信息的方法存在重大缺陷,导致专家不全面的知识参考点,验证了技术预见专家受有限理性即参考点效应和证实性偏差约束的假设.
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| 关 键 词： | 德尔菲法 技术预见 有限理性 经济学 分析 |
Analysis of the Defects of Delphi Technology Foresight and Their Cause: from the Perspective of Behavior Economics |
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| Abstract: | The theory of bounded rationality in behavior economics is introduced into technology foresight,and used to examine the defects of the current technology foresight method,that is,Delphi method. The paper thinks that there are 2 major defects in Delphi technology foresight:one is anchoring effect,and the other is confirmatory bias. After reviewing the 4 literatures at home and abroad,the paper finds that the information sources and the information analysis method of the experts have great defects which lead ... |
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| Keywords: | Delphi method technical foresight bounded rationality economics analysis |
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