| 技术环境监测在德尔菲法技术预见中的作用 |
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| 引用本文： | 张冬梅,曾忠禄.技术环境监测在德尔菲法技术预见中的作用[J].情报理论与实践,2010,33(3). |
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| 作者姓名： | 张冬梅 曾忠禄 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 广东药学院,广东,广州,510006
2. 澳门理工学院,澳门 |
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| 基金项目： | 广东高校优秀青年创新人才培育项目资助 |
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| 摘 要： | 德尔菲法技术预见准确性和可靠性低有两大原因:一是专家的认知偏差或有限理性,二是技术发展不确定性水平高。针对第二个原因,本文提出在德尔菲法技术预见后引入技术环境监测法。技术环境监测法的作用是监测德尔菲法专家预见时基于假设和预见结果的早期迹象是否出现,及时确认或修正专家前期的预见结果,从而提高技术预见的可靠性。
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| 关 键 词： | 技术预见 德尔菲法 不确定性 技术环境监测 |
The Role of Technology Environment Monitoring on Delphi's Technology Foresight |
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| Zhang Dongmei et al.The Role of Technology Environment Monitoring on Delphi''s Technology Foresight[J].Information Studies:Theory & Application,2010,33(3). |
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| Authors: | Zhang Dongmei |
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| Institution: | Zhang Dongmei et al |
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| Abstract: | There are 2 major causes for the low accuracy and reliability of Delphi's technology foresight.One is the cognitive bias or limited rational cognition of experts,the other is the high uncertainty of technology development.Concerning the second cause,this paper proposes to introduce technology environment monitoring after Delphi's technology foresight.The role of technology environment monitoring is to monitor whether the early signs based on hypothesis and foresight results appear when using Delphi's expert... |
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| Keywords: | technology foresight Delphi method uncertainty technology environment monitoring |
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