| 基于Meta方法的气候灾害影响经济发展的文献分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 谭玲,吴先华,李廉水.基于Meta方法的气候灾害影响经济发展的文献分析[J].科学学研究,2020,38(2):208-217. |
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| 作者姓名： | 谭玲 吴先华 李廉水 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 南京信息工程大学应用气象学院;2. 上海海事大学经济管理学院;3. 南京信息工程大学; |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金;国家社会科学基金 |
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| 摘 要： | 气候变暖是人类社会需要共同应对的挑战。但气候灾害对经济发展有何影响，现有研究结论不完全一致。本文搜集了77篇研究文献、1833个参数估计值，根据数据来源、灾害类型、灾害变量、恢复力因素、估计方法和发表特征等六方面的数据，采用Meta回归方法，分析了研究结果差异性的偏倚来源，总结了气候灾害影响经济发展的一般性规律。结果表明：（1）气候灾害对区域的经济发展带来了显著影响，但直接经济损失研究存在显著的发表偏倚；（2）灾害的时间跨度及所在区域的发展水平对研究结果的影响较大，总体而言，气候灾害对发展水平较低的区域的影响更明显；（3）GDP、教育、投资、开放性、人口密度、制度水平及灾害援助等恢复力因素在不同程度上影响着研究结果，但在直接经济损失和间接经济损失研究中的作用存在差异。最后提出，未来可研究各种恢复力因素的作用机制和具体影响，本文为气候变化经济学研究提供了新的视角和方法，是已有研究的有益补充。
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| 关 键 词： | 气候灾害 Meta分析 恢复力 直接经济损失 间接经济损失 |
| 收稿时间： | 2019-06-10 |
Impact of climatedisasters on economic development: A meta-analysis |
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| Abstract: | The frequency and intensity of natural disasters are increasing with the effects of climate warming. The impact of climate disasters on economic development is not completely consistent.
In this paper, Meta-regression analysis method is used to explore the general rules of how climate-related disasters affect social economy and the bias sources of result differences with 77 research papers and 1833 parameter estimates collected between research literatures from six aspects，which are data sources, disaster types, disaster variables, resilience factors, estimation methods and publication characteristics. The results show that: (1) climate-related disasters have significant impacts on both direct and indirect economies, but there are significant publication biases in direct economic loss studies. (2) The time span of disasters and the level of economic development in the original research literature have a great impact on the research results. The overall results of empirical research show that the impact on areas with low development level is more obvious. (3) Resilience factors such as GDP, education, investment, openness, population density, institutional level and disaster aid affect the research results in varying degrees, and there are differences in the role of direct economic losses and indirect economic losses. The specific economic impacts and mechanisms of various resilience factors in different research samples need to be clarified in the future. The conclusions obtained in this paper can provide new ideas for economic research on climate disasters. |
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