| 新兴技术成长阶段动态监测方法研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 马志云,许雅洁,杨芳娟,张路蓬.新兴技术成长阶段动态监测方法研究[J].科学学研究,2020,38(6):976-989. |
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| 作者姓名： | 马志云 许雅洁 杨芳娟 张路蓬 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 北京理工大学;2. ;3. 清华大学;4. 北京航空航天大学; |
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| 基金项目： | 教育部人文社会科学研究项目;宁夏高等学校一流建设学科项目;国家自然科学基金 |
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| 摘 要： | 新兴技术成长阶段动态监测是一项较为复杂的工作，现有研究较多的从定性评价的角度着手，构建技术成长监测的一般方法，相关成果为更客观的量化方法选择奠定了基础。本研究旨在提供一种可计量的标准化新兴技术成长检测技术。具体包括：（1）运用数学模型将Gartner公司提出的Hype Cycle技术成长曲线以一种可量化的方式进行了呈现；（2）根据Gompertz曲线的数学特征给出技术成长阶段的划分和判定方式；（3）结合实际应用中可能出现的情况给出了新兴技术成长监测方法应用流程；（4）选取人工智能的3个核心技术对所提监测方法进行了实证检验，并给出了后续应用应注意事项。研究成果以期为当前技术成长监测理论和方法研究提供新的思路。
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| 关 键 词： | 新兴技术 成长监测 方法研究 |
| 收稿时间： | 2019-06-06 |
Research on Dynamic Monitoring Method of Emerging Technology Growth Stage |
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| Abstract: | The dynamic monitoring of the growth stage of emerging technologies is a relatively complicated task. The existing researches start from the perspective of qualitative evaluation, and construct the general method of technology growth monitoring. Relevant results have laid the foundation for more objective quantitative method selection. This paper aims to provide a measurable standardization of emerging technology growth detection technology. Specifically, it includes: (1) Using mathematical models to present the Hype Cycle technology growth curve proposed by Gartner in a quantifiable manner. (2) According to the mathematical characteristics of the Gompertz curve, the division and judgment methods of the technology growth stage are given. (3) The application process of the emerging technology growth monitoring method is given in combination with the situations that may occur in practical applications. (4) The three core technologies of artificial intelligence are selected to conduct an empirical test on the proposed monitoring method, and the matters that should be paid attention to in subsequent applications are presented. It is hoped that our results provide a new way of thinking for the current technology growth monitoring theory and method research. |
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